Recall the earlier example of assessing the risk of loan defaults. Suppose the bank's top managers are divided on whether to adopt the scoring system permanently. A number of top officers believe their intuitive judgment about risks is superior to an "artificial" score. Accordingly, the bank decides to test its judgment against the scoring system. The managers will make their own designations of loans to the four categories and see how well they can identify problem loans. Their track record over the past year is shown in the table:
Recall the earlier example of assessing the risk of loan defaults. Suppose the bank's top managers are divided on whether to adopt the scoring system permanently. A number of top officers believe their intuitive judgment about risks is superior to an "artificial" score. Accordingly, the bank decides to test its judgment against the scoring system. The managers will make their own designations of loans to the four categories and see how well they can identify problem loans. Their track record over the past year is shown in the table:
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
Related questions
Question

Transcribed Image Text:This is my question!!!
8. Recall the earlier example of assessing the risk of loan defaults. Suppose
the bank's top managers are divided on whether to adopt the scoring
system permanently. A number of top officers believe their intuitive
judgment about risks is superior to an "artificial" score. Accordingly, the
bank decides to test its judgment against the scoring system. The
managers will make their own designations of loans to the four
categories and see how well they can identify problem loans. Their track
record over the past year is shown in the table:
Category
A ("zero" risk)
B (solid)
C (uncertain)
D (high risk)
Total
Performing Loan
.25
.30
.40
.05
1.00
Defaulted Loan
.20
.25
.45
.10
1.00
a. Predict the probability of default for each loan category. (Assume the
overall default rate is 10 percent: Pr(default) = .1.)
b. How do these risk assessments, based on judgment and intuition,
compare with the earlier predictions based on credit scores? Which
seems to provide more valuable information? Explain.

Transcribed Image Text:TABLE 13.2
Assessing Loan Risks
Part (a) lists the fre-
quency of loan cate-
gories by actual
default experience.
Part (b) lists the joint
probabilities of all
outcomes.
Part (c) shows the
conditional
probabilities.
This is the example!!!!!!
(a) Frequencies of Loan Categories by Actual Default Record
Category
Performing Loan
Defaulted Loan
A ("zero" risk)
.1
B (solid)
.2
C (uncertain)
.4
D (high risk)
.3
Total
1.0
1.0
For example, 10 percent of all defaulted loans were (incorrectly) judged
to be "zero" risk at the time the money was lent.
(b) Joint Probabilities
Category
A ("zero" risk)
B (solid)
C (uncertain)
D (high risk)
Total
.2
.4
.3
.1
Performing Loan
.18
.36
.27
.09
.90
(c) Conditional Probabilities
Pr(default A) = .01/.19 = .05
Pr(default B) = .02/.38 = .05
Pr(default C) = .04/.31.13
Pr(default D) = .03/.12 .25
Defaulted Loan
.01
.02
.04
.03
.10
Total
.19
.31
.12
1.00
Expert Solution

This question has been solved!
Explore an expertly crafted, step-by-step solution for a thorough understanding of key concepts.
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps

Recommended textbooks for you

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
Probability
ISBN:
9780134753119
Author:
Sheldon Ross
Publisher:
PEARSON


A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
Probability
ISBN:
9780134753119
Author:
Sheldon Ross
Publisher:
PEARSON
