Question 4 A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect 95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%. Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie. a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation. b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation
Question 4 A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect 95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%. Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie. a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation. b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation
Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms
4th Edition
ISBN:9780534380588
Author:Wayne L. Winston
Publisher:Wayne L. Winston
Chapter23: Simulation With The Excel Add-in @risk
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 8RP
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![Question 4
A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect
95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%.
Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie.
a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation.
b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full
calculation](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F83c13de9-775f-43a6-a34c-0ec7e6de8b0b%2F64b93cad-ecf0-417c-ab46-cb335ad8c792%2Fcr82lys_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Question 4
A Lie detector machine can correctly detect 96% of the time if a person tells a lie and correctly detect
95% of the time if a person tells a truth. In a jury board, the probability of a person telling a lie is 2%.
Now, the lie detector machine declares that a person has told a lie.
a) What is more likely, the person is a liar or not? Apply proper theorem and show full calculation.
b) What is the probability of the person not being a liar? Apply proper theorem and show full
calculation
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