Question 2 : Consider a disease for which only 25% of individuals who have become exposed are progressing to become infectious. However, whether or not an individual becomes infectious can only be determined after a 5-day latent period. Individuals who are not progressing to become infectious will remain susceptible. The average time an individual stays infective is 2 days. Also, after an average of 10 days after having recovered, 10% of recovered individuals will revert to become susceptible again. 90% of the individuals, however, acquire lifelong immunity. (a) Develop the transition diagram that depicts the move of individuals between compartments. Hint: you can use PowerPoint or online tool such as https://app.diagrams.net/ to draw the diagram. The diagram should contain the labels of the stages and have arrows indicating from one stage to another stage. ******Susceptible, invectives, and recovered individuals in the SIR model are moving through "the compartments " S-I-R. The SIR model is referred to as compartmental model as you move individuals out of one compartment into another. *******
Question 2 :
Consider a disease for which only 25% of individuals who have become exposed are progressing to
become infectious. However, whether or not an individual becomes infectious can only be determined
after a 5-day latent period. Individuals who are not progressing to become infectious will remain
susceptible. The average time an individual stays infective is 2 days. Also, after an average of 10 days
after having recovered, 10% of recovered individuals will revert to become susceptible again. 90% of the
individuals, however, acquire lifelong immunity.
(a) Develop the transition diagram that depicts the move of individuals between compartments.
Hint: you can use PowerPoint or online tool such as https://app.diagrams.net/ to draw the diagram.
The diagram should contain the labels of the stages and have arrows indicating from one stage to
another stage. ******Susceptible, invectives, and recovered individuals in the SIR model are moving through "the compartments " S-I-R. The SIR model is referred to as compartmental model as you move individuals out of one compartment into another. *******
![THE BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER R.
Note that an epidemic requires an increase in the number of infectives:
AI = aSI – yI = Y(÷s-1)I
Peak of Outbreak
"s>1= AI > 0
"s =1= AI = 0
"s <1= AI < 0
R, Measurement
Area
Outbreak Duration
Time
Infectious Individuals](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fc353cc0f-0c4d-4d5b-a3e6-e746dbb90f94%2Fdcba9892-bdb4-4823-8b2c-63bafa1e1b8e%2Fy68z3tr_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
![DERIVING RO
St – 1)
Ro 3D 윽So
AI = yIt(9
-
Ro > 1=
→ possible Epidemic
Ro = 1 Endemic
Ro < 1= isolated cases](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fc353cc0f-0c4d-4d5b-a3e6-e746dbb90f94%2Fdcba9892-bdb4-4823-8b2c-63bafa1e1b8e%2Frco5kqt_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
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