QUESTION 12 A company has experienced the following quarterly sales for the past eight quarters Demand Quarter (year Quarter (year 1) 2) 1 2 3 5 Deman d 10 12 22 6 26 26 7 30 4 19 8 22 Considering the following values for the intercept, slope, seasonal factors, and smoothing constants Go= 2.3362, So=-29.36, c.3= 0.5330, c.2-1.1752, c.1 1.2825, co=0.9203 a=0.2, y=0.1, B=0.1 Forecast four period ahead demand at time t=0. (t=0=present, period 8).

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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**Question 12**

A company has experienced the following quarterly sales for the past eight quarters.

| Quarter (Year 1) | Demand |
|------------------|--------|
| 1                | 10     |
| 2                | 22     |
| 3                | 26     |
| 4                | 19     |

| Quarter (Year 2) | Demand |
|------------------|--------|
| 1                | 5      |
| 2                | 7      |
| 3                | 8      |
| 4                | 4      |

Forecasting demand for the next four periods requires using a given set of statistical coefficients:

- Intercept (c): 52.38
- Seasonal factors: S1 = 2.39, S2 = 3.05, S3 = 0.24, S4 = 1.25
- Smoothing constants: 
  - α = 0.2
  - β = 0.3
  - γ = 0.2
- Lag factors: d = 12
- Additional constants:
  - c1 = 20.14
  - c2 = 30.00
  - c3 = 2.00

Forecast the four-period ahead demand at time t=0, where t-0 is the present (period 8).
Transcribed Image Text:**Question 12** A company has experienced the following quarterly sales for the past eight quarters. | Quarter (Year 1) | Demand | |------------------|--------| | 1 | 10 | | 2 | 22 | | 3 | 26 | | 4 | 19 | | Quarter (Year 2) | Demand | |------------------|--------| | 1 | 5 | | 2 | 7 | | 3 | 8 | | 4 | 4 | Forecasting demand for the next four periods requires using a given set of statistical coefficients: - Intercept (c): 52.38 - Seasonal factors: S1 = 2.39, S2 = 3.05, S3 = 0.24, S4 = 1.25 - Smoothing constants: - α = 0.2 - β = 0.3 - γ = 0.2 - Lag factors: d = 12 - Additional constants: - c1 = 20.14 - c2 = 30.00 - c3 = 2.00 Forecast the four-period ahead demand at time t=0, where t-0 is the present (period 8).
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