Quantitative Sweet Company is preparing its budget and, taking into consideration 15. the recent pace of economic recovery, has developed several sales forecasts and the estimated probability associated with each sales forecast. To determine the sales forecast to be used for budgeting purposes, which one of the following techniques should Sweet use? Expected value analysis. b. Continuous probability simulation. Exponential distribution analysis. d. Sensitivity analysis. a. C. (CMA, Adapted) Taam
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
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15.
the recent pace of economic recovery, has developed several sales
forecasts and the estimated probability associated with each sales
forecast.
Sweet Company is preparing its budget and, taking into consideration
purposes, which one of the following techniques should Sweet use?
Expected value analysis.
To determine the sales forecast to be used for budgeting
a.
b.
Continuous probability simulation.
Exponential distribution analysis.
d. Sensitivity analysis.
C.
(CMA, Adapted)
16. Under favorable weather conditions, the management of Forever Farms
expects its rice
crop subject to pests has an expected market value of P80,000. If
Forever protects the rice against pests, the market value of the crop is
still expected to be P120,000 under pest-free conditions and P180,000
if pests are present. What must be the probability of pests for Forever
to be indifferent to spending P20,000 for tents to provide pest
protection?
0.167
crop
to have a P120,000 market value. An unprotected
a.
0.250
d. 0.333
с.
b. 0.200
During the past few years, Winter Company has experienced the
following average number of power outages:
17.
Number per month
Number of Months
0.
3.
1
4
3
12
Each power outage results in out-of-pocket costs of P800. For P1,000
per month, Winter can lease a generator to provide power during
outages. If Winter leases a generator in the coming year, the estimated
savings (or additional expense) for the year will be
P(15,200).
b. P(1,267).
a.
с.
P3,200.
d.
P7,200."
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