Quantitative Sweet Company is preparing its budget and, taking into consideration 15. the recent pace of economic recovery, has developed several sales forecasts and the estimated probability associated with each sales forecast. To determine the sales forecast to be used for budgeting purposes, which one of the following techniques should Sweet use? Expected value analysis. b. Continuous probability simulation. Exponential distribution analysis. d. Sensitivity analysis. a. C. (CMA, Adapted) Taam
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
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