Q1: You are a juror contemplating your verdict on a criminal case. Based on all of the evidence you have heard, you estimate the probability of the accused being guilty at 80%. Your valuation of the four possible outcomes (conviction or acquittal of an actually guilty or an actually innocent person) is as follows: Outcome of Trial Convicted Acquitted Reality Guilty 1 -10 Innocent -100 1 (a) Show that your optimal action is to vote for acquittal. (b) How high must your estimate of the probability of guilt be before your optimal action will become voting for conviction?
Q1: You are a juror contemplating your verdict on a criminal case. Based on all of the evidence you have heard, you estimate the probability of the accused being guilty at 80%. Your valuation of the four possible outcomes (conviction or acquittal of an actually guilty or an actually innocent person) is as follows: Outcome of Trial Convicted Acquitted Reality Guilty 1 -10 Innocent -100 1 (a) Show that your optimal action is to vote for acquittal. (b) How high must your estimate of the probability of guilt be before your optimal action will become voting for conviction?
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
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![Q1: You are a juror contemplating your verdict on a criminal case. Based on all of the
evidence you have heard, you estimate the probability of the accused being guilty at
80%. Your valuation of the four possible outcomes (conviction or acquittal of an
actually guilty or an actually innocent person) is as follows:
Outcome of Trial
Convicted
Acquitted
Reality
Guilty
1
-10
Innocent
-100
1
(a) Show that your optimal action is to vote for acquittal.
(b) How high must your estimate of the probability of guilt be before your optimal
action will become voting for conviction?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F3c67d035-4038-4e17-8725-20c061ecd44d%2F39a43e6f-3dbd-4bbb-9818-e7d28305bdd5%2F16fzx2q_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Q1: You are a juror contemplating your verdict on a criminal case. Based on all of the
evidence you have heard, you estimate the probability of the accused being guilty at
80%. Your valuation of the four possible outcomes (conviction or acquittal of an
actually guilty or an actually innocent person) is as follows:
Outcome of Trial
Convicted
Acquitted
Reality
Guilty
1
-10
Innocent
-100
1
(a) Show that your optimal action is to vote for acquittal.
(b) How high must your estimate of the probability of guilt be before your optimal
action will become voting for conviction?
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