Q.2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET (S) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET (S) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET (S) - 10,000 -20,000 -40,000 -160,000 For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000. 1) What is the maximax decision? ) What is the maximin decision? ) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.

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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Q.2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms
has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to
decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her
station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After
a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table:
SIZE OF
FIRST STATION
Small
Medium
Large
Very large
GOOD MARKET (S)
50,000
80,000
100,000
300,000
FAIR MARKET ($)
20,000
30,000
30,000
25,000
POOR MARKET (S)
-10,000
-20,000
-40,000
-160,000
For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit
of $50,000.
a) What is the maximax decision?
b) What is the maximin decision?
c) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.
Transcribed Image Text:Q.2 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Helms has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF FIRST STATION Small Medium Large Very large GOOD MARKET (S) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 FAIR MARKET ($) 20,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 POOR MARKET (S) -10,000 -20,000 -40,000 -160,000 For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000. a) What is the maximax decision? b) What is the maximin decision? c) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.
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