Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gatherethe following data:Week6 weeks ago5 weeks ago4 weeks ago3 weeks ago2 weeks ago# Students8311095806550Last weekWhat is this week's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha=0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the smoothed forecast for last week was 60, and the smoothed trendestimate for last week's forecast was -5?49.3O 50.647.365.442.7

The Adjusted for Trend When there is a trend component in the time series, the more advanced…

Answered: Professor Very Busy needs to allocate…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks: Week 1 2 4 6. 7 8 10 11 12 Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) 17 21 19 23 19 17 21 19 23 21 13 24 a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use a = 0.25 (round your responses to two decimal places). Week 1 2 3 4 6. 7 8. 10 11 12 Forecasted Passenger Miles (in thousands) 17.00 17.00 18.00 18.25 19.44 19.33 18.75 19.31 19.23 20.17 b) The MAD for this model = thousand (round your response to two decimal places). c) Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors, cumulative MAD in thousands, and tracking signals (round your responses to two decimal places). Cumulative Cumulative Tracking Signal Forecast Tracking Signal Forecast Week Errors MAD Week Errors MAD 1 0.00 0.00 9.23 2.11 4.37 2 4.00 2.00 2.00 8. 8.92 1.89 4.73 3 5.00 1.67 3.00 9. 12.69 2.09 6.06 9.75 2.44 4.00 10 13.52 1.97 6.87 9.31…
If the demand in the current week was 102 units and we had forecast it to be 125, what would be next week’s forecast using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha of 0.3?
Describe why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and exponential smoothing are not well suited for data series that have trends ?
Forecasting The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection forecasting technique and exponential smoothing without trend to forecast room occupancy at the resort for the next 4 years. Using a numerical example, demonstrate how these techniques can be used to do the forecast.
An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of rollerblades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is Ft= 124 + 2t,and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSEare used?t Units Sold11 14712 14813 15114 14515 15516 15217 15518 15719 16020 165
b. Compute 2s control limits for each forecast. (Do not round your intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Forecast Method 1 Method 2 Control Limits
The following table shows predicted product demand using your particular forecasting method along with the actual demand that occurred: FORECAST ACTUAL 1,515 1,585 1,415 1,515 1,715 1,615 1,755 1,680 1,805 1,730 Compute the tracking signal of each period using the mean absolute deviation and running sum of forecast errors.
Y9
Explain any one qualitative forecasting technique. How do you measure the forecast error? Give example.
Following table shows the weekly sales of smart phones at electronic retail store: Week Number of smart phones Sold Forecast using 3 period moving average Error Forecast using exponential smoothing (with α =0.4) Error 1 48 2 41 3 55 4 64 5 62 6 55 7 8 Answer the following questions based on the data given above. Show all your calculations. What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on 3 period moving average. What is the forecast for the 8th week using the same method if the actual sales for week 7 happens to be 70? What is the expected sales for the 7th week based on exponential smoothing with α = 0.3? Which of the above two forecasting method is better based on MSE? Explain why?
Holiday Lodge The Holiday Lodge is a large hotel and casino in the Adirondacks. The relatively new hotel is two years old, and the manager is trying to develop a plan to staff the maintenance department. The hotel’s manager wants to use the two years of data below to forecast one month ahead of maintenance calls. The data is provided in the spreadsheet named HOLIDAY LODGE DATA.XLS Month Calls 1 46 2 39 3 28 4 21 5 14 6 16 7 14 8 13 9 9 10 13 11 18 12 15 13 12 14 6 15 19 16 9 17 12 18 14 19 16 20 12 21 13 22 9 23 14 24 15 Develop a forecast for month 25 using a 4 month moving average, exponential smoothing (a = 0.2) and regression. Which forecast is preferred? Why?
The Polish General’s Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste for Europeanpizza. One of its specialties is Polish Prize pizza. The manager must forecast weekly demand for thesespecial pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly. Recently, demand has been as follows: a. Forecast the demand for pizza for June 23 to July 14 by using the simple moving average method withn = 3. Then, repeat the forecast by using the weighted moving average method with n = 3 andweights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20, with 0.50 applying to the most recent demand.b. Calculate the MAD for each method

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