Of the one million squirrels on HU’s main campus most are good-natured. But one hundred of them are pure evil! An enterprising student of FEST develops an “Evil Squirrel Alarm” which he/she offers to sell to HU for a passing grade. HU decides to test the reliability of the alarm by conducting trials.  When presented with an evil squirrel, the alarm goes off 99% of the time.  When presented with a good-natured squirrel, the alarm goes off 1% of the time. (a) If a squirrel sets off the alarm, what is the probability that it is evil? (b) Should HU employ the system?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Of the one million squirrels on HU’s main campus most are good-natured. But one
hundred of them are pure evil! An enterprising student of FEST develops an “Evil
Squirrel Alarm” which he/she offers to sell to HU for a passing grade. HU decides to
test the reliability of the alarm by conducting trials.
 When presented with an evil squirrel, the alarm goes off 99% of the time.
 When presented with a good-natured squirrel, the alarm goes off 1% of the
time.
(a) If a squirrel sets off the alarm, what is the probability that it is evil?
(b) Should HU employ the system?

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