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- Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs as N=1,000+9X where X=timeperiod(months);January2002=0 N=monthlybedneeds Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years: Forecast Metropolitans bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007. If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?A firm experienced the demand shown in the following table. *Unkown future value to be forecast Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (with a w=0.9 and a w=0.3). Note The exponential smoothing forecasts may be begun by assuming Y t+1=Yt. Using the forecasts from 2005 through 2009, compare the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods based on the RMSE criterion. Which forecast would you have used for 2010? Why?Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50
- Jan '20 0.68 Feb '20 0.76 Mar '20 1.6 Apr '20 1.47 May '20 0.98 Jun '20 1.18 Jul '20 3.59 Aug '20 3.33 Sept '20 4.31 Oct '20 3.84 Nov '20 6.97 Dec '20 7.7 Using data above please provide one qualitative and two quantitative (Simple and weighted moving average) monthly forecasts in the United States for the holiday season in 20212. Montyboy Pet Shop ships boxed can dogfood anywhere in the country. Using the following information, forecast the shipments for the first four months. Seasonal Relative Month January February March 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 The monthly forecast equation being used is: Yt = 402 + 3t April May June Where: to = January last year Yt = number of shipments Month July August September October November December Seasonal Relative 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 Question: Determine the trend amounts for the first four months of the next year assuming January, t=24; February, t=25; etc. Note: Round answers to whole numbers.Actual sales of TV's for the first six month in 2021 were as follows:January 60 February 80 March 42April 68 May 44 June 72 Use this information and determine in whole numbers: 1 The average actual monthly sales for that period 2 Trends: Reduce this average by 6% per month for the next three months 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA): make a forecast for July using a three months simple movingaverage. 4 Weighted Moving Average (WMA): make forecast for July, using a three months weightedmoving average where the weights are 0.5; 0.3 and 0.2 respectively.
- Time Actual (Y) Forecast (Yhat) Forecast Error 100 1 2 110 3 115 4 120 If naïve method is used for the above data, what is the error for period 4, e(4)? Hint: You have to calculate he forecasted value before you can calculate the forecast error. 10 15 can not be determinedHomework i ed ok ences Aft کے 2 The forecasted demand for Week 20 is places.) b. Use the above trend equation to predict expected loadings for Weeks 20 & 21. (Round your final answers to 2 decimal A- W It should reach 870 loadings in Week # 3 decimal places.) c. The manager intends to install new equipment when the volume exceeds 870 loadings per week. Assuming the current trend continues, in which week (at the earliest) should the loading volume reach that level? (Use the rounded answers, as required, from any previous part of this problem. Do not round any other intermediate calculations. Round your final answer to 2 €1 + E C Q Search $ 4 R V C % 5 G M F9 JK 9 " F10 Alt F11 ✩ P น Ctrl 8 Help Save & Exit Submit F12 C PrtSc + 11 Insert Home 1 3/23/2023 Delete Backspace PgUp ErA company that produces video equipment, including videocameras and televisions, is attempting to forecast what newproducts and product innovations might be technologicallyfeasible and that customers might demand 10 years into thefuture. Speculate on what type of qualitative methods itmight use to develop this type of forecast.
- 4. Suppose we have a summary of forecasting techniques calculation results for Gundam Auto Sales Inc. (in the prior item) as follows: Mean Next Standard Period Error Forecasting Method Used Forecast (MSE) 1.3-period UnWMA 10.42 3.24 2.4-period UnWMA 10.38 3.51 3.3-period WMA 10.83 3.03 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing 5. Trend Projection 8.24 5.04 11.43 1.16 a. Which among the techniques is the most reliable? b. What does the result of the most reliable technique say?4. Relate cycles, seasonality and trends in time series forecasting. What is their relevance in such type of forecasting? 5. Illustrate one example/scenario when judgmental forecast is utilized.The demand of a product of a company is given below for the periods. Can we use Winter method for forecasting demands of the A following 3 periods? Why? If yes, apply it past 4. 6. Demand 27 31 40 31 35 45