Learning Activity: The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature State of nature s1 Decision alternative s2 S3 di 200 160 -30 d2 180 210 -20 If the decision maker estimates the following probabilities for the three states of nature; P(s1) = 0.1, P(s2) = 0.5 and P(s3) = 0.4 ) Find the best decision to be made. Include the risk profile associated with your choice. (H) Find the expected value of perfect information. (ii) If the probability info were not available, what decision would have been best according to the conservative approach?

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Learning Activity:
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two
decision alternatives and three states of nature
State of nature
Decision alternative
s1
S2
S3
d1
200
160
-30
d2
180
210
-20
If the decision maker estimates the following probabilities for the three states of
nature; P(s1) = 0.1, P(s2) = 0.5 and P(s3) = 0.4
(1) Find the best decision to be made. Include the risk profile associated with
your choice.
(i) Find the expected value of perfect information.
(ii) If the probability info were not available, what decision would have been
best according to the conservative approach?
Transcribed Image Text:Learning Activity: The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature State of nature Decision alternative s1 S2 S3 d1 200 160 -30 d2 180 210 -20 If the decision maker estimates the following probabilities for the three states of nature; P(s1) = 0.1, P(s2) = 0.5 and P(s3) = 0.4 (1) Find the best decision to be made. Include the risk profile associated with your choice. (i) Find the expected value of perfect information. (ii) If the probability info were not available, what decision would have been best according to the conservative approach?
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