Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 0.512 and that the risk-free rate is 7%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer to three decimal places. million
Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 0.512 and that the risk-free rate is 7%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer to three decimal places. million
Managerial Accounting
15th Edition
ISBN:9781337912020
Author:Carl Warren, Ph.d. Cma William B. Tayler
Publisher:Carl Warren, Ph.d. Cma William B. Tayler
Chapter12: Capital Investment Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 3CMA
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![Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis
The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates
the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4
million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in
2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2
years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows
would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all
cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of
the project's rate of return is 0.512 and that the risk-free rate is 7%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your
answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer
to three decimal places.
million](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fa7058b60-8e2a-49e3-948d-db0c8840f4dd%2F78bee773-76e1-4424-a7ee-a16f447e6a3a%2Fn7f56sr_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis
The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates
the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4
million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in
2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2
years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows
would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all
cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of
the project's rate of return is 0.512 and that the risk-free rate is 7%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your
answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer
to three decimal places.
million
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