INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION The Engler Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oi on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates that the project will cos $9 million today. Engler estimates that once drilled, the oil will generate positive cash flow of $4.3 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairl confident about its cash flow forecast, it recognizes that if it waits 2 years, it will have mor information about the local geology as well as the price of oil. Engler estimates that if waits 2 years, the project will cost $12 million, and cash flows will continue for 4 years afte the initial investment is made. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, there is a 95% chance that th cash flows will be $4.4 million a year for 4 years, and there is a 5% chance that the cash flow will be $2.4 million a year for 4 years. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 11%. a. If the company chooses to drill today, what is the project's expected net present value? b. Would it make sense to wait 2 years before deciding whether to drill? Explain. c. What is the value of the investment timing option? d. What disadvantages might arise from delaying a project such as this drilling project?
INVESTMENT TIMING OPTION The Engler Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oi on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates that the project will cos $9 million today. Engler estimates that once drilled, the oil will generate positive cash flow of $4.3 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairl confident about its cash flow forecast, it recognizes that if it waits 2 years, it will have mor information about the local geology as well as the price of oil. Engler estimates that if waits 2 years, the project will cost $12 million, and cash flows will continue for 4 years afte the initial investment is made. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, there is a 95% chance that th cash flows will be $4.4 million a year for 4 years, and there is a 5% chance that the cash flow will be $2.4 million a year for 4 years. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 11%. a. If the company chooses to drill today, what is the project's expected net present value? b. Would it make sense to wait 2 years before deciding whether to drill? Explain. c. What is the value of the investment timing option? d. What disadvantages might arise from delaying a project such as this drilling project?
Essentials Of Investments
11th Edition
ISBN:9781260013924
Author:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Publisher:Bodie, Zvi, Kane, Alex, MARCUS, Alan J.
Chapter1: Investments: Background And Issues
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1PS
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