How would you go about calculating the likelihood of a "super-event" or a "unique event?" What variables would you take into account
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How would you go about calculating the likelihood of a "super-event" or a "unique event?" What variables would you take into account ?
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- How would you go about attempting to come upwith the probability of a “super-event” or the probability of a“unique-event?” What factors would you consider?From a risk management perspective, what are possible interpretations of 'probability'?Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…
- Causal relationships are potentially useful for which component of a time series?Suppose a software producer is about to release a new version of its popular software. What information do you think it would take into account in forecasting initial sales?What are the advanatges and limitations of using each Quantitaive Risk Assessments such as Bayesian Network, Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis and Bow Tie Analysis in the oil refinery storage industry?
- Suppose a software producer is about to release a new version of its popular software. What information it would take into account in forecasting initial sales?An entrepreneur has embarked on a project to use human hair in place of animal furs in a clothing line. The human hair is to be woven into cotton fabrics, to make a hybrid fabric, that can be used as a thermal insulating fabric (i.e., it keeps persons warm). To increase the probability of sales the hybrid fabric must be dyed in various colors. Provide advice to the entrepreneur on what approaches should/could be taken to dye the new hybrid fabric. In your advice discuss the requirements of the dyes to be used, why hair dyes would not be a good option and how the dye(s) you suggest would work in the application based on the structure/properties of the fabric.