Fundraising by telephone Tree diagrams can organize problems having more than two stages. The figure shows probabilities for a charity calling potential donors by telephone.25 Each person called is either a recent donor, a past donor, or a new prospect. At the next stage, the person called either does or does not pledge to contribute, with conditional probabilities that depend on the donor class to which the person belongs. Finally, those who make a pledge either do or don’t actually make a contribution. Suppose we randomly select a person who is called by the charity. What is the probability that the person contributed to the charity? Given that the person contributed, find the probability that he or she is a recent donor

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Fundraising by telephone Tree diagrams can organize problems having more than two stages. The figure shows probabilities for a charity calling potential donors by telephone.25 Each person called is either a recent donor, a past donor, or a new prospect. At the next stage, the person called either does or does not pledge to contribute, with conditional probabilities that depend on the donor class to which the person belongs. Finally, those who make a pledge either do or don’t actually make a contribution. Suppose we randomly select a person who is called by the charity.

  1. What is the probability that the person contributed to the charity?
  2. Given that the person contributed, find the probability that he or she is a recent donor.
0.8
Contribute
0.4
Pledge
Recent
0.2
Not
donor
0.6
No pledge
0.5
0.6
Contribute
0.3
Pledge
0.3
Past
0.4
Not
donor
0.7
No pledge
\0.2
0.5
Contribute
0.1
Pledge
New
0.5
Not
prospect
0.9
No pledge
Starnes & Tabor, The Practice of Statistics, 6e, O 2018
Bedford, Freeman & Worth High School Publishers
Transcribed Image Text:0.8 Contribute 0.4 Pledge Recent 0.2 Not donor 0.6 No pledge 0.5 0.6 Contribute 0.3 Pledge 0.3 Past 0.4 Not donor 0.7 No pledge \0.2 0.5 Contribute 0.1 Pledge New 0.5 Not prospect 0.9 No pledge Starnes & Tabor, The Practice of Statistics, 6e, O 2018 Bedford, Freeman & Worth High School Publishers
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