For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 85, 82, 83, 84, and 83. (a) Construct a time series plot. O 86 85 84 83 81 80 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 86- 85 84 83 Ins 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month (b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. Compute the MSE for the three-month moving forecast. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 86 Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for a 0.3. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 84 83 82 IM 81 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy? O An exponential smoothing forecast with a 0.3 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. O Both forecastes provide the same level of accuracy using MSE. O A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. (c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 85 O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a cyclical pattern. O Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend pattern. O The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern. 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 86 85 80 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month
For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 85, 82, 83, 84, and 83. (a) Construct a time series plot. O 86 85 84 83 81 80 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 86- 85 84 83 Ins 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month (b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. Compute the MSE for the three-month moving forecast. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 86 Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for a 0.3. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 84 83 82 IM 81 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy? O An exponential smoothing forecast with a 0.3 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. O Both forecastes provide the same level of accuracy using MSE. O A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. (c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) 85 O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a cyclical pattern. O Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend pattern. O The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern. 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month 86 85 80 78 77 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Transcribed Image Text:For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 85, 82, 83, 84, and 83.
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
86
O
86
85
84
83
82
81
mmmm
80
79
78
77
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
Month
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78+
77
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
86-
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78-
77
What type of pattern exists in the data?
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new
level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern.
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a cyclical pattern.
O Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend pattern.
O The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern.
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern.
(b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3.
Compute the MSE for the three-month moving forecast. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
O
Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy?
O An exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.3 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
O Both forecastes provide the same level of accuracy using MSE.
O A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
(c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
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