Assuming the following deseasonalized demand, what would your Level and Trend FORECAST factors be for future deseasonalized demand estimates?(Hint, you might want to use excel for this)period1234567891013673664027373486141 13186)54483485772816591823633168553581112131516171819Demand DeseasonalizedD₁Demand D320076584420238436548680579519534742204472465749565074515759176646685067916573636363086932788786628989O Level-4696 Trend-343O Level-3612. Trend-264O Level 3629; Trend-263O Level-2528: Trend-185

Demand & Deseasonalised Demand for 20 periods is provided below:Deseasonalised demand refers to…

Answered: Assuming the following deseasonalized…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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A Use a simple moving average model. Experiment with the models using five weeks and three weeks past data. 3 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 B evaluate the forecast that would have been made over the 13 weeks using overall mean absolutely deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.
(b) Demand history of five different products of a company is shown below. Products 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 A 37 40 41 45 49 26 34 30 26 23 33 28 32 C 58 55 32 38 45 56 62 70 77 86 95 83 88 81 92 85 i. Name the methods that is suitable to forecast the demand of the above five products? ii. Forecast demand of the product B or D with error for the year 2021. If you need a value of a then consider it 0.7.
The actual demand of a product for six months are summarized in the table below: Month (t) Demand Dt 1 80 2 90 3 70 4 100 5 70 6 90 Find three months weighted moving averages by assuming the weights, W1 =1, W2 = 0.4 and W3 = 0.5 ii. Compute the mean forecast error iii. Compute the mean square error (MSE) iv. Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD). v. Mean absolute percent error (MAPE)
The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Mackrin's in Colorado for the past 12 weeks. Which forecasting model would you recommend to Mackrin's manager? Why? What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13? Week Actual Demand (1000 liters) Forecasting (1000 liters) FSMA /A-F/ FWMA /A-F/ FES, α=0.3 /A-F/ 1 17 2 21 17 4 3 19 18.2 0.8 4 23 19 4 18.44 4.56 5 18 21 3 20.8 2.8 19.81 1.81 6 16 20 4 20 4 19.3 3.3 7 20 19 1 18.3 2.3 18.31 1.69 8 18 18 0 18.7 0.7 18.82 0.82 9 22 18 4 18.2 4.2 18.6 3.4 10 20 20 0 19.8 0.2 19.62 0.38 11 15 20 5 20.2 5.2 19.73 4.73 12 22 19 3 18.2 3.8 18.3 3.7 13 19 19.5 19.41 MAD 2.67 2.9 2.7 MSE 10.22…
National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below: Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19 2 March 18 3 April 15 4 May 20 5 June 18 6 July 22 7 August 20 8 September ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 4 years: 1 Year Demand 8 Year Forecast (ES) 1 7.0 Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 7.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 (round your responses to one decimal place). 3 5 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers). Year Forecast (NA) 2 10 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 9 4 5
A store has the following demand figures for the last four years: Year Demand 100 1 150 3 112 4 200 Given a demand forecast for year 2 of 100, a trend forecast for year 2 of 10, an alpha of 0.3, and a beta of 0.2, what is the demand forecast for year 3 using the exponential smoothing with trend method? 128 115 Ⓒ 135 Ⓒ 145
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year Demand 1 7 Year Forecast 2 8 2 3 4 3 4 10 4 Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). 3 2 4 5 6 T 8 9 Year 1 Forecast 6.0 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers) 5 12 5 6 7 6 7 8 11 14 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 13 11 11 11 8 12 12
Among these trend patterns, within the projection methods, choose the one that is most common when analyzing demand, and why?-Secular trend -Seasonal variation -Cyclical fluctuations -Irregular movements
OQ16
Prepare a graph of the monthly forecasts and average forecast demand for Chicago Paint Corp., a manufacturer of specialized paint for artists. Compute the demand per day for each month (round your responses to one decimal place). Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Choose the correct graph of the forecast demands below. OA Production Days 2222222222 23 19 20 21 20 23 21 20 19 Demand Forecast 950 1,050 1,250 1,350 1,300 1,300 1,250 1,150 1,050 1,000 1,000 950 Demand per Day 325
Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let α = 0.5, � = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200

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