1. The Southern Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant. One of the customers' favorites is Southern Spicy Cheesy Pizza. Tim Owan, the manager, must forecast monthly demand for these special pizzas so that he can order the correct amount of pizza shells monthly. Based on records, the demand has been as follows: (Please see the table) a) Forecast the demand for Southern Spicy Cheesy Pizza for month 13-16, using the 3 and 4 period moving average method. Note: Round up all the forecast to the nearest hundredth. b) Forecast the demand for month 16, using weights of 0.5. c) Forecast the demand for month 10 to 16 using the exponential smoothing method with a = 0.3. d) Now, forecast the demand for month 10-16 using the exponential smoothing method with a = 0.6. How do they compare to that in part (c)?
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- Rosa's Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. The restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager, has collected information on the number of customers served each day for the past two weeks. If Mario expects total demand for next week to be around 336, what is the forecast for each day of nvext week? (Round intermediate colculations to 4 decimal places, eg. 1.2645 and final answers to 1 decimal place, es 15.2) Number of custooers Day Week 1 Week 2 Tuesdav 45 47 Wednesday 34 28 Thursday 44 31 Friday 92 107 Saturday 104 94 Sunday 55 79 Forecast Day TuesdayRosa's Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. The restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager, has collected information on the number of customers served each day for the past two weeks. If Mario expects total demand for next week to be around 336, what is the forecast for each day of next week? (Round intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places, e.g. 1.2645 and final answers to 1 decimal place, e.g. 15.2.)1 The demand for automobiles at Crescent Auto Dealers for the past 8 weeks is as follows. Week Auto Demand Weights1 9 0.12 11 0.33 8 0.64 125 106 137 78 12a Develop a 3-week moving average forecast for Weeks 4 through 9b Develop a 3-week weighted average forecast…
- 5. Demand for patient surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past fewyears, as seen in the following table. The director of medical services predicted six years ago thatdemand in year 1 would be 42 surgeries. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 20%,develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. Compute for the MAD.6. Consider the following data table. (12 Points) a) Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an apha of 0.25, and an initial forecast of 128.0 for period 1. b) Calculate the MAD and MSE. Period Real demand 130 138 129 140 3 4 5 133↑ Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: Week 1 Demand 20 5 6 7 8 9 10 24 30 36 24 26 28 2 4 23 28 38 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a 0.60 and a week 1 initial forecast of 20.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): 7 Week 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 20 23 28 38 24 Forecast 20.0 36 6 30 8 24 9 10 26 28 b) For the forecast developed using exponential smoothing (a=0.60 and initial forecast 20.0), the MAD-sales (round your response to two decimal places). c) For the forecast developed using exponential smoothing (a=0.60 and initial forecast 20.0), the tracking signal = (round your response to two decimal places).