The manager of travel agency hasbeen using a seasonally adjustedforecast to predict demand forpackaged tours. The actual andpredicted values are as follows:a. Compute MAD for the 5thperiodb. Compute MAPE for the 3rdperiodPeriod12345678910Demand19945691853226269549Predicted24605094804028247050

MAD is the proportion between absolute errors and the number of periods. MAPE is the average value…

Answered: The manager of travel agency has been…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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2. Fastway is a parcel delivery company based in Pretoria. It measures demand on a weekly basis in terms of the number of parcels which it is given to deliver (irrespective of the size of each parcel). The forecast for week 20 is 63. The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67 25 69 26 65 27 71 28 68 29 68 30 70 31 72 32 66 33 68 34 67 Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year Demand 1 7 Year Forecast 2 8 2 3 4 3 4 10 4 Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). 3 2 4 5 6 T 8 9 Year 1 Forecast 6.0 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers) 5 12 5 6 7 6 7 8 11 14 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 13 11 11 11 8 12 12
Amalgamated Products which produces chemical materials has the following demand pattern for one of its key products. Weekly demand data is show below: Week Demand 1 1000 2 1250 3 800 4 1900 5 1640 6 2200 7 1870 8 2670 9 3210 10 2850 11 2200 12 2980 13 3790 14 4210 15 4716 Apply the Holt’s Model in forecasting the demand for period 16 What are the optimal values for alpha and beta if the decision-maker wishes to restrict both values to be between 0.25 and 0.65 What is the value of the minimized error term in this context? Show all related EXCEL plotsＢ Note: Include all EXCEL regression output and any plots
No singal forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions: True or false?
Problem 18-3 (Algo) Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note, the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter Apr, May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; and 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. Last year This year JAN 150 170 FEB MAR 170 190 190 APR MAY 235 225 175 245 270 Forecast for the third quarter JUN 250 215 SEP 175 AUG JUL 195 185 OCT 250 ▸ NOV DEC 275 295
2. Fastway is a parcel delivery company based in Pretoria. It measures demand on a weekly basis in terms of the number of parcels which it is given to deliver (irrespective of the size of each parcel). The forecast for week 20 is 63. The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67 25 69 26 65 27 71 28 68 29 68 30 70 31 72 32 66 33 68 34 67 Predict the forecast for week 35 using an exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.20.
The demand for a product of a company in each of the last twelve months is shown in the table below; Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Demand 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47 56 52 55 54 Use the table to compute the following forecast demand for the company; a. Four months simple moving average b. Four months weighted moving average using the weight of 40%, 30% and 20% and 10%respectively.
Apply the moving average with base m=4 forecasting technique of the data to estimate the demand in week 13.
Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table: YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000S OF BAGS) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast demand?
The demand data for Double T Computer Services appears below. The company wants you to forecast the demand for period 4. What is your forecast using the least squares method? Period Demand 1 37 2 40 3 40
12.7 The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fund Price 62.7 63.9 68.0 66.4 67.2 65.8 68.2 69.3 67.2 70.1 Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40, the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40 and ß = 0.30, and the linear trend line forecast. Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
Apply the exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2 forecasting technique of the data to estimate the demand in week 13.

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