Answer the following: 1. Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? 2. Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below. Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 2 21 3 26 4 18 5 29 6 17 7 21 3. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units, respectively. The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units, respectively. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks. Sales Forecast Error Error squared Pct. error 80 60 20 400 .25 100 80 20 400 .20 105 95 10 100 .095 90 75 15 225 .167
Answer the following:
1. Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3?
2. Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below. Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute the MAD for both
Week Sales (cases)
1 17
2 21
3 26
4 18
5 29
6 17
7 21
3. The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units, respectively. The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units, respectively. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.
|
Sales |
Forecast |
Error |
Error squared |
Pct. error |
|
80 |
60 |
20 |
400 |
.25 |
|
100 |
80 |
20 |
400 |
.20 |
|
105 |
95 |
10 |
100 |
.095 |
|
90 |
75 |
15 |
225 |
.167 |
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