$10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2. a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total cost. b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option? What is the EVPI? c)

College Algebra
1st Edition
ISBN:9781938168383
Author:Jay Abramson
Publisher:Jay Abramson
Chapter7: Systems Of Equations And Inequalities
Section7.2: Systems Of Linear Equations: Three Variables
Problem 61SE: Last year, at Haven's Pond Car Dealership, for a particular model of BMW, Jeep, and Toyota, one...
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Draw decision tree for Part A.

Problem 4: Sophie is studying for a qualifying exam which costs $100 to retake if she fails. She
can delay the exam for a cost of $70, and will pass if she does so. She thinks the probability of
her passing the exam if she takes it now is 0.4, but she has the option of taking a mock exam for
$10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she
were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2.
a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total
cost.
b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie
indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option?
c) What is the EVPI?
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 4: Sophie is studying for a qualifying exam which costs $100 to retake if she fails. She can delay the exam for a cost of $70, and will pass if she does so. She thinks the probability of her passing the exam if she takes it now is 0.4, but she has the option of taking a mock exam for $10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2. a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total cost. b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option? c) What is the EVPI?
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