$10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2. a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total cost. b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option? What is the EVPI? c)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Draw decision tree for Part A.

Problem 4: Sophie is studying for a qualifying exam which costs $100 to retake if she fails. She
can delay the exam for a cost of $70, and will pass if she does so. She thinks the probability of
her passing the exam if she takes it now is 0.4, but she has the option of taking a mock exam for
$10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she
were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2.
a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total
cost.
b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie
indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option?
c) What is the EVPI?
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 4: Sophie is studying for a qualifying exam which costs $100 to retake if she fails. She can delay the exam for a cost of $70, and will pass if she does so. She thinks the probability of her passing the exam if she takes it now is 0.4, but she has the option of taking a mock exam for $10. If she were to pass the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.9. If she were to fail the real exam, her probability of passing the mock exam is 0.2. a) Using a decision tree, determine what Sophie should do to minimize her expected total cost. b) How much should the cost of the mock exam increase or decrease to make Sophie indifferent between taking the mock exam and the next best option? c) What is the EVPI?
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