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1 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving survey information 300 di 20 X2 0.3 200 d2 100 X2 0.3 don't use survey 0.4 300 di 20 X2 a use survey survey cost: –5 0.4 200 d2 100 X2 a 82 1- q 300 di 20 X2 0.2 200 d2 100 X2 0.2 (a) Describe the specific probabilities that each variable a, b, p, q corresponds to, then deter- mine the value of each. (b) Solve the decision tree (using the EMV criterion, i.e. maximise the expected utility). (c) Determine the values of EMV (without the survey), EMV(survey), EVSI and ENGSI.

1 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving survey information 300 di 20 X2 0.3 200 d2 100 X2 0.3 don't use survey 0.4 300 di 20 X2 a use survey survey cost: –5 0.4 200 d2 100 X2 a 82 1- q 300 di 20 X2 0.2 200 d2 100 X2 0.2 (a) Describe the specific probabilities that each variable a, b, p, q corresponds to, then deter- mine the value of each. (b) Solve the decision tree (using the EMV criterion, i.e. maximise the expected utility). (c) Determine the values of EMV (without the survey), EMV(survey), EVSI and ENGSI.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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1 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving survey information 300 di 20 x2 0.3 xi p 200 d2 100 X2 0.3 don't use survey 0.4 300 di 20 X2 a use survey survey cost: -5 0.4 200 d2 S1 100 X2 a 82 1- q 300 di 20 X2 0.2 200 d2 100 X2 0.2 (a) Describe the specific probabilities that each variable a, b, p, q corresponds to, then deter- mine the value of each. (b) Solve the decision tree (using the EMV criterion, i.e. maximise the expected utility). (c) Determine the values of EMV (without the survey), EMV(survey), EVSI and ENGSI.
Transcribed Image Text:1 The following decision tree describes a decision problem involving survey information 300 di 20 x2 0.3 xi p 200 d2 100 X2 0.3 don't use survey 0.4 300 di 20 X2 a use survey survey cost: -5 0.4 200 d2 S1 100 X2 a 82 1- q 300 di 20 X2 0.2 200 d2 100 X2 0.2 (a) Describe the specific probabilities that each variable a, b, p, q corresponds to, then deter- mine the value of each. (b) Solve the decision tree (using the EMV criterion, i.e. maximise the expected utility). (c) Determine the values of EMV (without the survey), EMV(survey), EVSI and ENGSI.
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