Diagnostic tests of medical conditions can have several types of results. The test result can be positive or negative, whether or not a patient has the condition. A positive test (+) indicates that the patient has the condition. A negative test (−) indicates that the patient does not have the condition. Remember, a positive test does not prove the patient has the condition. Additional medical work may be required. Consider a random sample of 200 patients, some of whom have a medical condition and some of whom do not. Results of a new diagnostic test for a condition are shown. Condition Present Condition Absent Row Total Test Result + 110 20 130 Test Result − 21 49 70 Column Total 131 69 200 Assume the sample is representative of the entire population. For a person selected at random, compute the following probabilities. (Enter your answers as fractions.) (a) P(+ | condition present); this is known as the sensitivity of a test. (b) P(− | condition present); this is known as the false-negative rate. (c) P(− | condition absent); this is known as the specificity of a test.
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
Diagnostic tests of medical conditions can have several types of results. The test result can be positive or negative, whether or not a patient has the condition. A positive test (+) indicates that the patient has the condition. A negative test (−) indicates that the patient does not have the condition. Remember, a positive test does not prove the patient has the condition. Additional medical work may be required. Consider a random sample of 200 patients, some of whom have a medical condition and some of whom do not. Results of a new diagnostic test for a condition are shown.
| Condition Present | Condition Absent | Row Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Test Result + | 110 | 20 | 130 |
| Test Result − | 21 | 49 | 70 |
| Column Total | 131 | 69 | 200 |
Assume the sample is representative of the entire population. For a person selected at random, compute the following
(a)
P(+ | condition present); this is known as the sensitivity of a test.(b)
P(− | condition present); this is known as the false-negative rate.(c)
P(− | condition absent); this is known as the specificity of a test.(d)
P(+ | condition absent); this is known as the false-positive rate.(e)
P(condition present and +); this is the predictive value of the test.(f)
P(condition present and −).
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