Answered: Consider the following time series…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	16	11	17	14

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the
data?
b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
c. Use α= .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the
exponential smoothing approach using α = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? explain.
e. Use a smoothing constant of α = .4 to compute the exponential
smoothing forecasts. does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear
to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? explain.

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