Consider the following time series data.Week1234S9Value181114101613(a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?◇ The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.O The data appear to follow a trend pattern.The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.◇ The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.(b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)WeekTime SeriesValueForecast118211314410516613Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)MSE=What is the forecast for week 7?

The question is about forecasting.Given :

Answered: Consider the following time series…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question 1
Consider the following data: Year Answer Deaths Number of Deaths in the U.S. by Drug Overdose 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 17,035 17,510 14,316 13,382 17,756 14,516 11,155 18,656 16,643 Step 1 of 2: Find the two-period moving average for the year 2008. If necessary, round your answer to one decimal place.
Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 8. 2 5 3 4 6 7 8 9. (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? O The time series plot shows a linear trend and no seasonal pattern in the data. O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. O The time series plot shows horizontal pattern and no seasonal pattern in the data. The time series plot shows linear trend and a seasonal pattern in the data. (b) Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. (Round your numerical values to three decimal places.) x, = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x, = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise ŷ = (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for the next year based on the model you developed in part (b). (Round your answers to two decimal places.) quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3…
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 6 7 Value 21 12 22 14 18 21 14 Round your answers to two decimal places. a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. Mean squared error is What is the forecast for month 8? b. Compute MSE using the average of all data available as the forecast for the next period. Mean squared error is What is the forecast for month 8?
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 15 13 15 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the…
Consider the following time series data: Week 3 4 5 6 2. 1.
the data contained in the datafile named crudecost shows the U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in dollars per barrel (energy information administration website,February 3, 2014).a. construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 11 16 10 17 12 (a) Construct a time series plot. 201 20 20 18 18- 18 18 16 16 14 2 2 4 6 7 1 2 4 6 7 2 4 5 6 2 4 6 Week Week Week Week What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. O The data appear to follow a trend pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value Week Forecast 1 19 11 3 16 4 10 28.44 17 21.78 6 12 5.44 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = 18.56 What is the forecast for week 7? 13
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.
The data for this problem are the air freight shipments (in ton-miles) each month (beginning in January for one year) in the U. S. for 10 years. The following is a time series plot of this data. What are the most important features of this plot? Ton-miles 3000- 2500- 2000- 1500- 1000- 1 Time Series Plot of Ton-miles ܚ ܪܘܐܐܐ ܘ ܚܐ ܀ 12 24 36 48 60 Index 72 84 96 108 120
The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 12-month period follow. (a) Construct a time series plot. 400 350 300 250 200+ O 1 2 3 4 Month 5 6 What type of pattern exists in the data? 7 240 340 220 260 280 310 8 9 150- 100 The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. 10 50 0 11 12 01 2 400 350 300 250 200- 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 34 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Month Time Series Value (in $ millions) 240 340 (b) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) 220 260 280 310 210 320 250 6 320 7 Month 230 220 210 320 250 320 230 220 de 8 9 10 11 12 13 r 3-Month Moving Average Forecast (in $ millions) 400 350+ 300 250 200+ 150- 100+ 50+ 0 01010101000 400 T 350 300 0 1 2 3 4 250+ 200+ 150+ 100+ α = 0.2 Forecast (in $ millions) 50…
The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for Moraga Bookstore over the past three years follow. Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 1 16 25 22 15 2 19 31 25 18 3 21 33 27 17 Construct a time-series plot. What type of pattern(s) exists in the data? Compute the seasonal index for the four quarters. ]Compute the linear trend equation for the deseasonalized data.

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