Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 15 13 15 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. Using this approach results in a MSE. (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that yields the minimum MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two-decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient. alpha:

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	13	15	13	15	15

(a)	Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)

What type of pattern exists in the data?

(b)

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Value	Forecast
1	18
2	13
3	15
4	13
5	15
6	15

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:

(c)

Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Value	Forecast
1	18
2	13
3	15
4	13
5	15
6	15

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:

(d)

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Explain.

Using this approach results in a MSE.

(e)

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that yields the minimum MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two-decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient.

alpha:

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