Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 21 13 19 21 17 What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (d) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. α =

Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 21 13 19 21 17 What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (d) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. α =

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

4th Edition

ISBN:9780534380588

Author:Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:Wayne L. Winston

Chapter24: Forecasting Models

Section24.5: Ad Hoc Forecasting

Problem 1P

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What type of pattern exists in the data?

(b)	Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
	If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
	MSE:
	The forecast for month 8:
(c)	Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
	If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
	MSE:
	The forecast for month 8:
(d)	Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

(e)	Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE.
	If required, round your answer to two decimal places.
	α =

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Value	23	13	21	13	19	21	17