Consider the following time series data: Month1234567Value23132113192117What type of pattern exists in the data? (b)Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8:(c)Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8:(d)Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? (e)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. α =

Step 10: Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast…

Answered: Consider the following time series…

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

4th Edition

ISBN:9780534380588

Author:Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:Wayne L. Winston

Chapter24: Forecasting Models

Section24.5: Ad Hoc Forecasting

Problem 1P

See similar textbooks

Related questions

Concept explainers

Question

Consider the following time series data:

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Value	23	13	21	13	19	21	17

What type of pattern exists in the data?

(b)	Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
	If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
	MSE:
	The forecast for month 8:
(c)	Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
	If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
	MSE:
	The forecast for month 8:
(d)	Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

(e)	Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE.
	If required, round your answer to two decimal places.
	α =

Expert Solution

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps

SEE SOLUTION Check out a sample Q&A here

Knowledge Booster

Learn more about

Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, computer-science and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.

Recommended textbooks for you

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

Computer Science

ISBN:

9780534380588

Author:

Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:

Brooks Cole