Calculate the probability of completing the above project for Test Marketers, Inc. in 25 days.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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**Assignment Instructions:**

**Task:** Calculate the probability of completing the above project for Test Marketers, Inc. in 25 days.

**Instructions for Students:**
- Show all calculations.
- You may perform this task by hand on paper. 
- After completing the calculations, take a photo and save it as a PDF or JPG file.
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Transcribed Image Text:**Assignment Instructions:** **Task:** Calculate the probability of completing the above project for Test Marketers, Inc. in 25 days. **Instructions for Students:** - Show all calculations. - You may perform this task by hand on paper. - After completing the calculations, take a photo and save it as a PDF or JPG file. - Upload the file here. [Upload Button] --- No graphs or diagrams are included in the image.
**Project Activities for Test Marketers, Inc.**

The expected times and variances for the activities associated with a project for Test Marketers, Inc. are detailed below. All time estimates are in days.

| ID | Description                    | Predecessor             | \( t_e \) | Variance \(\left[\frac{(b-a)}{6}\right]^2\) |
|----|--------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------|--------------------------------------------|
| 1  | Pilot production               | None                    | 6         | 3                                          |
| 2  | Select channels of distrib.    | None                    | 7         | 4                                          |
| 3  | Develop mktg. program          | None                    | 4         | 2                                          |
| 4  | Test market                    | 1                       | 4         | 2                                          |
| 5  | Patent                         | 1                       | 10        | 5                                          |
| 6  | Full production                | 4                       | 16        | 10                                         |
| 7  | Ad promotion                   | 3                       | 3         | 2                                          |
| 8  | Release                        | 2, 5, 6, 7              | 2         | 1                                          |

- **ID:** A unique identifier for each project activity.
- **Description:** A brief description of the task.
- **Predecessor:** Activities that must be completed before this one can start.
- **\( t_e \):** Expected completion time in days for the activity.
- **Variance:** A measure of the uncertainty or variability in the activity’s duration. Calculated using the formula \(\left[\frac{(b-a)}{6}\right]^2\).

This information helps plan and manage project timelines effectively by indicating potential overlaps and dependencies between activities.
Transcribed Image Text:**Project Activities for Test Marketers, Inc.** The expected times and variances for the activities associated with a project for Test Marketers, Inc. are detailed below. All time estimates are in days. | ID | Description | Predecessor | \( t_e \) | Variance \(\left[\frac{(b-a)}{6}\right]^2\) | |----|--------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------|--------------------------------------------| | 1 | Pilot production | None | 6 | 3 | | 2 | Select channels of distrib. | None | 7 | 4 | | 3 | Develop mktg. program | None | 4 | 2 | | 4 | Test market | 1 | 4 | 2 | | 5 | Patent | 1 | 10 | 5 | | 6 | Full production | 4 | 16 | 10 | | 7 | Ad promotion | 3 | 3 | 2 | | 8 | Release | 2, 5, 6, 7 | 2 | 1 | - **ID:** A unique identifier for each project activity. - **Description:** A brief description of the task. - **Predecessor:** Activities that must be completed before this one can start. - **\( t_e \):** Expected completion time in days for the activity. - **Variance:** A measure of the uncertainty or variability in the activity’s duration. Calculated using the formula \(\left[\frac{(b-a)}{6}\right]^2\). This information helps plan and manage project timelines effectively by indicating potential overlaps and dependencies between activities.
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