Bob’s Garden Supply has seen the following annual demand for lime bags over the past 11 years. Year Bags (thousands) Year Bags (thousands) 1 7 7 9 2 10 8 11 3 8 9 12 4 9 10 10 5 10 11 14 6 8 a) Create a time series post. b) Develop a 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages. What is each forecast for year 12? c) Develop a 3-year weighted moving average in which the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and the other years are given a weight of 1. What is the forecast for year 12? d) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.4. Assume that the forecast for year 1 is 6,000 bags. What is the forecast for year 12? e) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, c, and d. Which model is the best predictor?
Bob’s Garden Supply has seen the following annual demand for lime bags over the past 11 years.
|
Year |
Bags (thousands) |
Year |
Bags (thousands) |
|
1 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
|
2 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
|
3 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
|
4 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
|
5 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
|
6 |
8 |
|
|
a) Create a time series post.
b) Develop a 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year moving averages. What is each forecast for year 12?
c) Develop a 3-year weighted moving average in which the most recent year is given a weight of 2 and the other years are given a weight of 1. What is the forecast for year 12?
d) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.4. Assume that the forecast for year 1 is 6,000 bags. What is the forecast for year 12?
e) Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each model in problems b, c, and d. Which model is the best predictor?
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