Based on the information in the following table, use the ExponentialSmoothing Approach (a = 0.3) to forecast the demand for periods 4-13%3DPERIODMONTHDemandForecast1Jan222Feb1922223Mar212213Apr202May220Jun2007Jul113Aug1756.Sep27710Oct21111Nov24912Dec14413Jan6o00

The question is related to the Exponential smoothing model. The Forecasted demand as per Exponential…

Answered: Based on the information in the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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After using your forecasting model for six months, you decide to test it using a tracking signal. Here are the forecast and actual demands for the six-month period: PERIOD FORECAST ACTUAL May 420 465 June 470 560 July 525 365 August 575 460 September 620 670 October 725 595 Find the tracking signal. Note: Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.
Given the actual demand for years 2013/14, calculate the total forecast for year 2015, as well as the forecast units for each quarter of 2015. For your calculations use the principles of trend and seasonality. List five figures, as follows: Total, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 Quart. Year 2013 % Year 2014 % Year 2015 % 1 16 20 2 33 34 3 58 70 4 33 32
A production company was able to hit the following sales order for the past 3 months: 45% of 420pcs September Forecast, 30% of 350pcs October forecast and 25% of 280pcs November forecast. Determine the most appropriate forecasting model to be used, and compute for the estimated quantity in pcs needed to be produced by the month of December. Show your solution in a detailed tabular form.
Please do not give solution in image format thanku supose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9units . Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units .If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20. what should be the forecast for period 3
Two different forecasting models were used to forecastsales of a popular soda on a college campus. Actual demand andthe two sets of forecasts are shown. Use MAD to explain whichmethod provided a better forecast.
Apply 4-period SMA and 4-period WMA (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) to the given data. Determine the MAD, MSE, and RSE for both method and provide the forecast for the next period using the method with better MSE. period demand period demand 120 1 13 131 2 124 14 132 3 122 15 133 4 123 16 130 132 125 17 128 18 134 7 129 19 134 8 127 20 133 129 21 131 10 128 22 135 11 130 23 137 12 132 24 138
1. Which of the following is indicative of the season of heaviest demand when seasonality is measured on a quarterly basis? a. Seasonal index = .75 b. Seasonal index = 1.0 c. Seasonal index = 1.25 d. Seasonal index = 3.1 Answer: 2. The forecast calculated at the end of period t for period t+k is always the same for any value of k if the time series has systematic variability. A) True B) False
A. Find the tracking signal for each month. B. Does the model provide acceptable answers!
The actual demand of a product for six months are summarized in the table below: Month (t) Demand Dt 1 80 2 90 3 70 4 100 5 70 6 90 Find three months weighted moving averages by assuming the weights, W1 =1, W2 = 0.4 and W3 = 0.5 ii. Compute the mean forecast error iii. Compute the mean square error (MSE) iv. Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD). v. Mean absolute percent error (MAPE)
National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below: Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19 2 March 18 3 April 15 4 May 20 5 June 18 6 July 22 7 August 20 8 September ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
1. Discuss the differences between Qualitative and Quantitative forecasting models. How do Associative and Time Series techniques differ? 2. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)? 3. Use the following set of data to calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the following set of data. Actual (A:) Forecast (Ft) Forecast Error Absolute (Deviation) Month Forecast Eror January February March 45 45 42 50 34 45 April 48 40 Мay 38 45 MAD =
Consider the following from an estate agent’s business nationally: Month Houses Sold Jan 380 Feb 360 Mar 390 Apr 400 May 390 June 380 July 394 Aug 454 Sep 460 Oct 460 Nov 430 Dec 370 Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data Define moving averages and how they’re useful in forecasting (use Harvard referencing) At races, your horse, White Rum, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of ¼ in coming 3rd. First place pays $5,000 to the winner, second place $4,000 and third place $1,350. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1050? Your company plans to invest in a particular project. There is a 40% chance you will lose $3,000, a 45% chance you will break even, and a 15% chance you will make $5,500.…

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