Based on the data that has been gathered what is the probability of disasters in July & Augustus using Markov chain ?
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Based on the data that has been gathered what is the
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- A machine can be in one of four states: ‘running smoothly’ (state 1), ‘running but needs adjustment’ (state 2), ‘temporarily broken’ (state 3), and ‘destroyed’ (state 4). Each morning the state of the machine is recorded. Suppose that the state of the machine tomorrow morning depends only on the state of the machine this morning subject to the following rules. If the machine is running smoothly, there is 1% chance that by the next morning it will have exploded (this will destroy the machine), there is also a 9% chance that some part of the machine will break leading to it being temporarily broken. If neither of these things happen then the next morning there is an equal probability of it running smoothly or running but needing adjustment. If the machine is temporarily broken in the morning then an engineer will attempt to repair the machine that day, there is an equal chance that they succeed and the machine is running smoothly by the next day or they fail and cause the machine to…Watershed is a media services company that provides online streaming movie and television content. As a result of the competitive market of streaming service providers, Watershed is interested in proactively identifying will unsubscribe in the next three months based on the customer's characteristics. For a test set of customers, the file Watershed contains an indication of whether a customer unsubscribed in the past three months and the classification model's estimated unsubscribe probability for the customer. In an effort to prevent customer churn, Watershed wishes to offer promotions to customers who may unsubscribe. It costs Watershed $15 to offer a promotion to a customer. If offered a promotion, it successfully persuades a customer to remain a Watershed customer with probability 0.7, and the retaining the customer is worth $60 to Watershed. Click on the datafile logo to reference the data. Assuming customers will be offered the promotion in order of decreasing estimated…There are N sites that need protection (number them 1 to N). Someone is going to pick one of them to attack, and you must pick one to protect. Suppose that the attacker is going to attack site i with probability q;. You plan on selecting a site to protect, with probability pi of selecting site i. The choice of {qi} and {p;} represent the attacker's and defender's strategy, respectively.
- If A and B are two mutually exclusive events with P(A)= 0.5 and P(B)=0.4, find the following probabilities: a) P(A \textrm{ and } B) = 0.5 b) P(A \textrm{ or } B) = c) P( \textrm{not }A ) = d) P( \textrm{not }B ) = 0.4 e) P( \textrm{not }(A \textrm{ or } B)) = 0.4 f) P( A \textrm{ and } (\textrm{not }B) ) =2. (Finite Stochastic Processes). If a baseball team wins a game, they have a 39% chance of winning the next game due to getting overconfident (draws/ties should not occur in baseball). If they lose the previous came, there is a 67.5% chance they will win the next game. Assume that for the first game there is a 50% chance of winning. What is the probability the team wins the fourth game? Please give a complete, fully typed, solution to the problem. Please do not submit photos of hand-written notes instead of properly typed math text! (this may lead to going back “on" the screening, if you are currently "off" the screening).A market survey shows that 90% of the population used Brand X laundry detergent last year, 8% of the population gave up doing its laundry last year, and 9% of the population used Brand X and then gave up doing laundry last year. Are the events of using Brand X and giving up doing laundry independent? Is a user of Brand X detergent more or less likely to give up doing laundry than a randomly chosen person?
- 1. A machine can be in one of four states: 'running smoothly' (state 1), 'running but needs adjustment' (state 2), 'temporarily broken' (state 3), and 'destroyed' (state 4). Each morning the state of the machine is recorded. Suppose that the state of the machine tomorrow morning depends only on the state of the machine this morning subject to the following rules. • If the machine is running smoothly, there is 1% chance that by the next morning it will have exploded (this will destroy the machine), there is also a 9% chance that some part of the machine will break leading to it being temporarily broken. If neither of these things happen then the next morning there is an equal probability of it running smoothly or running but needing adjustment. • If the machine is temporarily broken in the morning then an engineer will attempt to repair the machine that day, there is an equal chance that they succeed and the machine is running smoothly by the next day or they fail and cause the machine…The Washington Wizards and the Philadelphia 76ers are two teams in the National Basketball Association. Washington and Philadelphia will play multiple times over the course of an NBA season. Assume that the Washington has a 25% probability of winning each game against the Philadelphia. Construct a simulation model that uses the negative binomial distribution to simulate the number of games Washington would lose before winning four games against the Philadelphia. Now suppose that the Wizards face the Philadelphia in a best-ofseven playoff series in which the first team to win four games out of seven wins the series. Using the simulation model from part (a), estimate that probability that the Washington would win a best-of-seven series against the Philadelphia 76ers.5. A distributed system contains 4 computers. What is the probability of its failure in one year, if probability of failure of the computers in this period are 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4?
- 1. A machine can be in one of four states: 'running smoothly' (state 1), 'running but needs adjustment' (state 2), 'temporarily broken' (state 3), and 'destroyed' (state 4). Each morning the state of the machine is recorded. Suppose that the state of the machine tomorrow morning depends only on the state of the machine this morning subject to the following rules. • If the machine is running smoothly, there is 1% chance that by the next morning it will have exploded (this will destroy the machine), there is also a 9% chance that some part of the machine will break leading to it being temporarily broken. If neither of these things happen then the next morning there is an equal probability of it running smoothly or running but needing adjustment. • If the machine is temporarily broken in the morning then an engineer will attempt to repair the machine that day, there is an equal chance that they succeed and the machine is running smoothly by the next day or they fail and cause the machine…2. (Finite Stochastic Processes). If a baseball team wins a game, they have a 39.5% chance of winning the next game due to getting overconfident (draws/ties should not occur in baseball). If they lose the previous came, there is a 67% chance they will win the next game. Assume that for the first game there is a 50% chance of winning. What is the probability the team wins the fourth game? Please give a complete, fully typed, solution to the problem. Please do not submit photos of hand-written notes instead of properly typed math text! (this may lead to going back "on" the screening, if you are currently "off" the screening).4 If the probability that a communication system will have high fidelity is 0.81 and the probability that it will have high fidelity and selectivity is 0.18, what is the probability that a system with high fidelity will also have high selectivity.