There is a small chance that a game release turns into a blockbuster and exceeds all profit expectations. UG believes that the probability of a game turning into a blockbuster is related to pre-release marketing events like major expositions at gaming conferences. These marketing events are very costly though, so they want to better understand how an event affects the probility of a blockbuster occurring. Suppose that each event results in either a ‘success’ (the game is a blockbuster) or a ‘failure’ (the game has typical profitability). Historically, UG figures that for any given event there is a 15% chance they will be successful and have a blockbuster. UG has 6 marketing events planned for this year for different games, and they would like to explore some probabilities surrounding these events to help them manage this process and forecast future profits. Occasionally the events will be noticed and written about by the national media in a major national newspaper, substantially boosting exposure for the game. Based on historical evidence, the national media does a major story in 40% of successful events and on only 20% of unsuccessful events. What are the chances that an event will be successful, given that the national media writes a story in a major newspaper.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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There is a small chance that a game release turns into a blockbuster and exceeds all profit expectations. UG believes that the probability of a game turning into a blockbuster is related to pre-release marketing events like major expositions at gaming conferences. These marketing events are

very costly though, so they want to better understand how an event affects the probility of a blockbuster occurring. Suppose that each event results in either a ‘success’ (the game is a blockbuster) or a ‘failure’ (the game has typical profitability). Historically, UG figures that for any given event there is a 15% chance they will be successful and have a blockbuster. UG has 6

marketing events planned for this year for different games, and they would like to explore some probabilities surrounding these events to help them manage this process and forecast future profits. Occasionally the events will be noticed and written about by the national media in a major national newspaper, substantially boosting exposure for the game. Based on historical evidence, the national media does a major story in 40% of successful events and on only 20% of unsuccessful events. What are the chances that an event will be successful, given that the national media writes a story in a major newspaper.

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