In a base-rate neglect experiment, subjects are randomly divided into two groups, namely A and B. Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95% nurses and 5% doctors. Subjects in Group B are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 5% nurses and 95% doctors. All subjects from both groups are provided with the following description about Max: Max lives in a beautiful house and drives an expensive car; he invests a lot of time in his career. All subjects from both groups are told that the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a doctor is 80%, and the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a nurse is 20%. All subjects from both groups are then asked to estimate the probability that Max is a doctor given that he fits the description. 1. Suppose subjects in Group A correctly use the probability theory. What should be their estimate? From this please explain why this experiment can test base-rate neglect. What type of responses given by the two groups may imply that they exhibit base-rate neglect?
In a base-rate neglect experiment, subjects are randomly divided into two groups, namely A and B. Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95% nurses and 5% doctors. Subjects in Group B are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 5% nurses and 95% doctors. All subjects from both groups are provided with the following description about Max: Max lives in a beautiful house and drives an expensive car; he invests a lot of time in his career. All subjects from both groups are told that the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a doctor is 80%, and the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a nurse is 20%. All subjects from both groups are then asked to estimate the probability that Max is a doctor given that he fits the description. 1. Suppose subjects in Group A correctly use the probability theory. What should be their estimate? From this please explain why this experiment can test base-rate neglect. What type of responses given by the two groups may imply that they exhibit base-rate neglect?
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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In a base-rate neglect experiment, subjects are randomly divided into two groups, namely A and B.
- Subjects in Group A are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 95% nurses and 5% doctors.
- Subjects in Group B are told that Max has been randomly drawn from a population of 5% nurses and 95% doctors.
- All subjects from both groups are provided with the following description about Max: Max lives in a beautiful house and drives an expensive car; he invests a lot of time in his career.
- All subjects from both groups are told that the
probability that Max fits the description given that he is a doctor is 80%, and the probability that Max fits the description given that he is a nurse is 20%.
All subjects from both groups are then asked to estimate the probability that Max is a doctor given that he fits the description.
1. Suppose subjects in Group A correctly use the probability theory. What should be their estimate?
From this please explain why this experiment can test base-rate neglect. What type of responses given by the two groups may imply that they exhibit base-rate neglect?
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