An otherwise fair six-sided die has been tampered with in an attempt to cheat at a dice game. The effect is that the 1 and 6 faces have a different probability of occurring than the 2, 3, 4 and 5 faces. Let 0 be the probability of obtaining a 1 on this biased die. Then the outcomes of rolling the biased die have the following probability mass function.

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An otherwise fair six-sided die has been tampered with in an attempt to
cheat at a dice game. The effect is that the 1 and 6 faces have a
different probability of occurring than the 2, 3, 4 and 5 faces.
Let 0 be the probability of obtaining a 1 on this biased die. Then the
outcomes of rolling the biased die have the following probability mass
function.
Table 1 The p.m.f. of outcomes of rolls of a biased die
Outcome
3
6.
Probability 0 1(1– 20) |(1- 20) ļ0– 20) |(1– 20) 0
Studies of the size and range of wild animal populations often involve
tagging observed individual animals and recording how many times each
is caught in a trap (from which it is then released back into the wild).
The dataset presented in Table 3 consists of the numbers of times cach
of n= 331 wood mice were caught in a particular trap (over a two-year
time period).
Table 3
Numbers of trappings of wood mice
Times trapped
Frequency
3 4
20
9.
71
59 41 39
26
19
12
9.
Times trapped 10
Frequency
11
12
13
14
15
16
17 18
8 4 9 2
3
3
3
Question 1:
What is the value of the maximum likelihood estimate, 0, of 0
based on these data? Justify your answer. What does the value of
suggest about the value of 0 for this biased die compared with the
value of 0 associated with a fair, unbiased, die?
Transcribed Image Text:An otherwise fair six-sided die has been tampered with in an attempt to cheat at a dice game. The effect is that the 1 and 6 faces have a different probability of occurring than the 2, 3, 4 and 5 faces. Let 0 be the probability of obtaining a 1 on this biased die. Then the outcomes of rolling the biased die have the following probability mass function. Table 1 The p.m.f. of outcomes of rolls of a biased die Outcome 3 6. Probability 0 1(1– 20) |(1- 20) ļ0– 20) |(1– 20) 0 Studies of the size and range of wild animal populations often involve tagging observed individual animals and recording how many times each is caught in a trap (from which it is then released back into the wild). The dataset presented in Table 3 consists of the numbers of times cach of n= 331 wood mice were caught in a particular trap (over a two-year time period). Table 3 Numbers of trappings of wood mice Times trapped Frequency 3 4 20 9. 71 59 41 39 26 19 12 9. Times trapped 10 Frequency 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 8 4 9 2 3 3 3 Question 1: What is the value of the maximum likelihood estimate, 0, of 0 based on these data? Justify your answer. What does the value of suggest about the value of 0 for this biased die compared with the value of 0 associated with a fair, unbiased, die?
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