An investor is considering investing in stocks, real estate, or bonds economic conditions.Suppose that the probabilities for good, stable and poor conditions are 0.2, 0.4 and ... (figure itout), respectively. Table 1 shows the payoff returns for the investor's decision situation.Table 1: Investment returnsInvestmentStocksReal estateBondsEconomic ConditionsGoodR5 000-R2 000R4 000StableR7 000R10 000R4 000PoorR3 000R6 000R4 000Assuming the probabilities of the occurrence of the state of nature are unknown, what will be thebest investment alternative;c)If the decision is based on opportunistic loss.d) If we use the equally likelihood criterion.a) If the decision maker is pessimistic about the future state,b) If the decision maker strikes a compromise between the maximin and maximax, assumingthe coefficient of pessimism is 0.2.

Find the Payoff table below: Payoff table Investment Economic Conditions Good Stable Poor…

Answered: An investor is considering investing in…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Larry’s Bakery operates a chain of ten high-end bakeries. Larry, the owner of these amazing bakeries, is looking at two options to increase his revenues throughout his chain of bakeries. The first option is to launch a loyalty card. Doing this would cost Larry $500,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.6, which means the probability it would result in low sales is 0.4. If high sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $1,000,000. If low sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of only $750,000. The second option Larry has is to cut the prices throughout his bakeries. Doing so would cost him $300,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.8. If doing this results in high sales, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $800,000. If it results in low sales, he can expect to see additional revenues of only $500,000. Larry obviously has a tough decision…
Eunice, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide onpossible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for eachof the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company willlaunch product 1, it will gain 125,000 if the market is successful and lose 125,000 if themarket is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 75,000 if the market issuccessful and lose 75,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch anyof the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a53% probability that the market will succeed and 47% probability that the market will fail.What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of eachcompany based on expected utility value?
Do the following problems using either TreePlan A student is deciding which scholarships (out of two) to accept. The first scholarship is worth $10,000 but carries the condition that recipients cannot accept another other forms of income (such as other scholarships). The second scholarship is awarded in a competition, where this student has a 50% chance of earning $7,000, a 40% chance of earning $10,000, and a 10% chance of earning $15,000. The student must inform the administrator of the first scholarship whether she will be accepting their offer today. A. Develop a decision tree to determine which scholarship this student should accept (using our normal decision criteria). B. Under what circumstance might the student accept the other scholarship?
Use the table below to answer the questions that follow and caculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of the different outcomesDECISION TABLE WITH CONDITIONAL VALUESSTATE OF NATUREFAVORABLE OUTCOME UNFAVORABLE OUTCOMEALTERNATIVES ($) ($)Start a big Company 2,000,000 -500,000Start a small company 800,000 -200,000Build Nothing 0 0Probabilities 0.3 0.7Calculate the following The EMV Maximin criterion Maximax criterion Minimax criterion
Suppose the city introduces a disposal tax and any unsold games must now be disposed of at a cost of €1 each. What is the company’s expected profit if it produces 1800 board games?
What is the probability that the satellite described in Solved Problem 4 will fail between 5 and 12years after being placed into earth orbit?
9. The East Chester Tribune must decide whether to publish a Sunday edition. The publisher thinks the probability is 0.6 that a Sunday edition would be a success and 0.4 that it would be a failure. If it is a success, she will gain $100,000. If it is a failure, she will lose $80,000. a. Construct a decision tree corresponding to the problem, and use backward induction to solve the problem. (Assume that the publisher is risk-neutral.) b. List all forks in the decision tree you constructed; then indicate whether each is a decision fork or a chance fork and state why.
You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.
The Dallas Mavericks trail by two points and have theball with 10 seconds remaining. They must decide whetherto take a two- or a three-point shot. Assume that once theMavericks take their shot, time expires. The probability thata two-point shot is successful is TWO, and the probabilitythat a three-point shot is successful is THREE. If the gameis tied, an overtime period will be played. Assume that thereis a .5 chance the Mavericks will win in overtime. (Note:This problem is often used on Microsoft job interviews.)a Give a rule based on the values of TWO and THREEthat tells Dallas what to do.b Typical values for an NBA team are TWO .45 andTHREE .35. Based on this information, what strategyshould most NBA teams follow?
46. You are making several runs of a simulation model,each with a different value of some decision variable(such as the order quantity in the Walton calendarmodel), to see which decision value achieves thelargest mean profit. Is it possible that one value beatsanother simply by random luck? What can you do tominimize the chance of a “better” value losing out toa “poorer” value?
A small strip-mining coal company is trying to decide whether it should purchase or lease a new clamshell. If purchased, the “shell” will cost $152,500 and is expected to have a $50,000 salvage value after 6 years. Alternatively, the company can lease a clamshell for only $16,000 per year, but the lease payment will have to be made at the beginning of each year. If the clamshell is purchased, it will be leased to other strip-mining companies whenever possible, an activity that is expected to yield revenues of $9,000 per year. If the company’s MARR is 13% per year, should the clamshell be purchased or leased on the basis of a future worth analysis? Assume the annual M&O cost is the same for both options. The future worth when purchased is $ The future worth when leased is $
please answer all parts of the question within 30 minutes with detailed explanation. Make sure calculation form part of the answer and are in details for better understanding. If calculations are not shown or are poorly done i will surely give negative ratings.

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