An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is F; = 124 + 2.1t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Units Sold 144 11 12 146 13 152 142 14 15 152 16 149 17 152 18 154 19 157 20 164 Click here for the Excel Data File MAD (Naive) 5.11 MAD (Linear) 5.49 MSE (Naive) MSE (Linear)

An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is F; = 124 + 2.1t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Units Sold 144 11 12 146 13 152 142 14 15 152 16 149 17 152 18 154 19 157 20 164 Click here for the Excel Data File MAD (Naive) 5.11 MAD (Linear) 5.49 MSE (Naive) MSE (Linear)

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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A security company had to deploy guards for emergencies multiple times in the last four evenings. The numbers of emergencies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were 7, 4, 8, and 11, respectively. What would be the security company's forecast for the number of emergencies on Friday using an exponential smoothing forecasting approach? (Use \alpha= 0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10 emergencies)
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. MONTH ACTUAL January 120 February 145 March 146 April 171 May 154 June 182 July 138 August 135 September 146 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.20 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. c-1. Calculate MAD for Three-month moving average and Exponential smoothing. c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances 3 3 8 5 8 6 Demand for Guitars 2 5 6 4 11 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): Y = + c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times = sales (round your response to two decimal places). d) The correlation coefficient (r)for this model = (round your response to four decimal places). The coefficient of determination (r2) for this model = (round your response to…
Give typed explanation Part 2: Using exponential smoothing, the forecasted demand for period 5 using the smoothing constant determined in image= ?
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If month one has 240,000 demands, month two 250,080 demands, month three 325,00 demands, month four 370,000 demands, month five 420,000 demands and month six 509,00 demands. Use a forecast for the first month of 240,000, an initial trend forecast of 50,000, and smoothing parameters of 0.35 for both demand smoothing and trend smoothing. Compute the forecasts and trends using double exponential smoothing
Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
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Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table: Maroon 5 TV Appearances Demand for Guitars Y = This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): + 4 2 X 5 7 5 9 7 6 7 6 10 7
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tab s lock Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the month Ges collected the data shown in the following table V esc This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places): c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 9 times = d) The correlation coefficient (r) for this model The coefficient of determination (2) for this model= The percentage of variation in sales that can be explained by TV appearances = Q A N @ 2 W S 31/1 X ** 3 8.0 F3 E D C $ Maroon 5 TV Appearances Demand for Guitars sales (round your response to two decimal places). (round your response to four decimal places). (round your response to four decimal places). 4 889 R F % 5 V d Es FS Y = T G % (round your response to two decimal places). A 6…