a. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 17 b. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 27 c. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 3?

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NW 3.88 ERRORS IN ESTIMATING JOB COSTS. A
construction company employs three sales engineers. Engineers
1, 2, and 3 estimate the costs of 30%, 20%, and 50%,
respectively, of all jobs bid by the company. For i = 1, 2, 3,
define E, to be the event that a job is estimated by engineer i.
The following probabilities describe the rates at which the
engineers make serious errors in estimating costs:
P(error E₁) = .01, P(error|E₂) = .03, and
P(error|E₂) = .02
a. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating
job cost, what is the probability that the error was made
by engineer 17
b. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating
job cost, what is the probability that the error was made
by engineer 27
c. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating
job cost, what is the probability that the error was made
by engineer 3?
d. Based on the probabilities, parts a-c, which engineer is
most likely responsible for making the serious error?
Transcribed Image Text:NW 3.88 ERRORS IN ESTIMATING JOB COSTS. A construction company employs three sales engineers. Engineers 1, 2, and 3 estimate the costs of 30%, 20%, and 50%, respectively, of all jobs bid by the company. For i = 1, 2, 3, define E, to be the event that a job is estimated by engineer i. The following probabilities describe the rates at which the engineers make serious errors in estimating costs: P(error E₁) = .01, P(error|E₂) = .03, and P(error|E₂) = .02 a. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 17 b. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 27 c. If a particular bid results in a serious error in estimating job cost, what is the probability that the error was made by engineer 3? d. Based on the probabilities, parts a-c, which engineer is most likely responsible for making the serious error?
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