Pet Place sells pet food and supplies including a popular bailed hay for horses. When the stock of this hay drops to 20 bails, a replenishment order is placed. The store manager is concerned that sales are being lost due to stock outs while waiting for a replenishment order. It has been previously determined that demand during the lead-time is normally distributed with a mean of 15 bails and a standard deviation of 6 bails. The manager would like to know the probability of a stockout during replenishment lead-time. In other words, what is the probability that demand during lead-time will exceed 20 bails? Compute to 2 decimal places.
Definition Definition Measure of central tendency that is the average of a given data set. The mean value is evaluated as the quotient of the sum of all observations by the sample size. The mean, in contrast to a median, is affected by extreme values. Very large or very small values can distract the mean from the center of the data. Arithmetic mean: The most common type of mean is the arithmetic mean. It is evaluated using the formula: μ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N x i Other types of means are the geometric mean, logarithmic mean, and harmonic mean. Geometric mean: The nth root of the product of n observations from a data set is defined as the geometric mean of the set: G = x 1 x 2 ... x n n Logarithmic mean: The difference of the natural logarithms of the two numbers, divided by the difference between the numbers is the logarithmic mean of the two numbers. The logarithmic mean is used particularly in heat transfer and mass transfer. ln x 2 − ln x 1 x 2 − x 1 Harmonic mean: The inverse of the arithmetic mean of the inverses of all the numbers in a data set is the harmonic mean of the data. 1 1 x 1 + 1 x 2 + ...
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If the manager of Pet Place wants the probability of a stockout during replenishment lead-time to be no more than 0.05, what should the reorder point be? Compute to the nearest whole number.
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