(a) Suppose a person answers 80% of a long battery of questions truthfully. What percentage of the answers will the polygraph wrongly indicate are lies? % (b) Suppose a person answers 20% of a long battery of questions with lies. What percentage of the answers will the polygraph correctly indicate are lies? % (c) Repeat parts (a) and (b) if 50% of the questions are answered truthfully and 50% are answered with lies. (a) % (b) % (d) Repeat parts (a) and (b) if 15% of the questions are answered truthfully and the rest are answered with lies. (a) % (b) %
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
In his book Chances: Risk and Odds in Everyday Life, James Burke states that there is a 72% chance a polygraph test (lie detector test) will catch a person who is, in fact, lying. Furthermore, there is approximately a 7% chance that the polygraph will falsely accuse someone of lying. (Round your answers to one decimal place.)
%
(b) Suppose a person answers 20% of a long battery of questions with lies. What percentage of the answers will the polygraph correctly indicate are lies?
%
(c) Repeat parts (a) and (b) if 50% of the questions are answered truthfully and 50% are answered with lies.
| (a) | % |
| (b) | % |
(d) Repeat parts (a) and (b) if 15% of the questions are answered truthfully and the rest are answered with lies.
| (a) | % |
| (b) | % |
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