The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?
The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
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
Transcribed Image Text:The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their
respective frequencies:
True positive
False negative
False positive
True negative
A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of
100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test.
a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities
of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative.
b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional
probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive
PSA test result?
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