A sample of 10,000 cells are sampled from a patient. If the patient is pre-cancerous we can expect 0.1% of them to be abnormal, and otherwise we'd expect none of them to be abnormal. About 1% of patients sent for this test are actually pre-cancerous. A test is used to check cells for abnormality: the

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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A sample of 10,000 cells are sampled from a patient. If the patient is

pre-cancerous we can expect 0.1% of them to be abnormal, and

otherwise we'd expect none of them to be abnormal. About 1% of

patients sent for this test are actually pre-cancerous. A test is used to

check cells for abnormality: the test is correct 99.5% of the time on

both normal and abnormal cells. Three (3) cells have this test applied

to them, and the test says one of them is abnormal and the rest are

normal. What is the probability that the patient is pre-cancerous?

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