A rare form of malignant tumor occurs in 11 children in a million, so its probability is 0.000011. Four cases of this tumor occurred in a certain town, which had 14,224 children. a. Assuming that this tumor occurs as usual, find the mean number of cases in groups of 14,224 children. b. Using the unrounded mean from part (a), find the probability that the number of tumor cases in a group of 14,224 children is 0 or 1. c. What is the probability of more than one case?

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**Example Problem: Tumor Probability Analysis**

A rare form of malignant tumor occurs in 11 children in a million, so its probability is 0.000011. Four cases of this tumor occurred in a certain town, which had 14,224 children.

**Questions:**

**a.** Assuming that this tumor occurs as usual, find the mean number of cases in groups of 14,224 children.

**b.** Using the unrounded mean from part (a), find the probability that the number of tumor cases in a group of 14,224 children is 0 or 1.

**c.** What is the probability of more than one case?

**d.** Does the cluster of four cases appear to be attributable to random chance? Why or why not?


**Solution Approach:**

1. **Mean Number of Cases (Part a):**
   - To find the mean number of cases, multiply the probability of one case by the number of children.
   
2. **Probability Calculation (Part b and c):**
   - Use the Poisson distribution to determine the probabilities of having 0, 1, or more than one case based on the mean number of cases.
   
3. **Analysis of Cluster (Part d):**
   - Compare the observed cases to the expected distribution to infer if the cluster is likely due to random chance.
Transcribed Image Text:**Example Problem: Tumor Probability Analysis** A rare form of malignant tumor occurs in 11 children in a million, so its probability is 0.000011. Four cases of this tumor occurred in a certain town, which had 14,224 children. **Questions:** **a.** Assuming that this tumor occurs as usual, find the mean number of cases in groups of 14,224 children. **b.** Using the unrounded mean from part (a), find the probability that the number of tumor cases in a group of 14,224 children is 0 or 1. **c.** What is the probability of more than one case? **d.** Does the cluster of four cases appear to be attributable to random chance? Why or why not? **Solution Approach:** 1. **Mean Number of Cases (Part a):** - To find the mean number of cases, multiply the probability of one case by the number of children. 2. **Probability Calculation (Part b and c):** - Use the Poisson distribution to determine the probabilities of having 0, 1, or more than one case based on the mean number of cases. 3. **Analysis of Cluster (Part d):** - Compare the observed cases to the expected distribution to infer if the cluster is likely due to random chance.
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