A quality control inspector is examining newly produced items for faults. The inspector searches an item for faults in a series of independent fixations, each of a fixed duration. Given that a flaw is actually present, let p denote the probability that the flaw is detected during any one fixation. We are given the following: Assuming that an item has a flaw, what is the probability that it is detected by the end of the second fixation (once a flaw has been detected, the sequence of fixations terminates)? 1−(1−p)2

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A quality control inspector is examining newly produced items for faults. The inspector searches an item for faults in a series of independent fixations, each of a fixed duration. Given that a flaw is actually present, let p denote the probability that the flaw is detected during any one fixation.

We are given the following:

Assuming that an item has a flaw, what is the probability that it is detected by the end of the second fixation (once a flaw has been detected, the sequence of fixations terminates)?
1−(1−p)2
 
Give an expression for the probability that a flaw will be detected by the end of the nth fixation.
1−(1−p)n
 
(d) Suppose 30% of all items contain a flaw [P(randomly chosen item is flawed) = 0.3]. With the assumption of part (c), what is the probability that a randomly chosen item will pass inspection (it will automatically pass if it is not flawed, but could also pass if it is flawed)?
 
Assumption from part (c): (1 - p)3
 
(e)Given that an item has passed inspection (no flaws in three fixations), what is the probability that it is actually flawed? Calculate for p = 0.5. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)
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Given information:

The probability that the flaw is detected during any one fixation, given that a flaw is actually present is p.

The probability that flawed item is detected by the end of the second fixation assuming that an item has a flaw is 1 – (1 – p)2.

The probability that flawed item is detected by the end of the nth fixation assuming that an item has a flaw is 1 – (1 – p)n.

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