A food company is considering three different salad dressings to introduce nationally, Dressing A, B, and C. They also have the option to not introduce any dressing this year. The profits from dressings A, B, and C are $1,144,712, $1,515,938, and $2,525,542 respectively if the national market is favorable. However, if the national market is unfavorable, the losses are $555,615, $758,875, and $912,435 respectively. Historical data shows a probability of 0.568 for a favorable national market. The company can test the market for salad dressings in selected geographic areas before introducing them nationally. The cost of the test market is $53,331. In the past, the probability of a negative test market was 0.354. Given a positive test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.745. Given a negative test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.304. Determine if the company should test the market before introducing their products nationally, using a decision tree (Make a decision tree). What is the EMV of the best decision?
A food company is considering three different salad dressings to introduce nationally, Dressing A, B, and C. They also have the option to not introduce any dressing this year. The profits from dressings A, B, and C are $1,144,712, $1,515,938, and $2,525,542 respectively if the national market is favorable. However, if the national market is unfavorable, the losses are $555,615, $758,875, and $912,435 respectively. Historical data shows a probability of 0.568 for a favorable national market.
The company can test the market for salad dressings in selected geographic areas before introducing them nationally. The cost of the test market is $53,331. In the past, the probability of a negative test market was 0.354. Given a positive test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.745. Given a negative test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.304.
Determine if the company should test the market before introducing their products nationally, using a decision tree (Make a decision tree). What is the EMV of the best decision?
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