A company wants to produce a weighted moving average forecast for April with theweights 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25 assigned to March, February, and January respectively.If the company had demands of 5,000 in January, 4,750 in February, and 5,200 inMarch, then April's forecast is5000.004992.504962.504983.33Page 4 of 20Previous PageNext Page36°C

Forecasting is a method of predicting future trends, based on historical data.

Answered: A company wants to produce a weighted…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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12.7 The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fund Price 62.7 63.9 68.0 66.4 67.2 65.8 68.2 69.3 67.2 70.1 Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40, the adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40 and ß = 0.30, and the linear trend line forecast. Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
Given an actual demand this period of 90, a forecast for this period of 58, and an alpha of 0.2, what would the forecast for the next period be using exponential smoothing?
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. MONTH ACTUAL January 120 February 145 March 146 April 171 May 154 June 182 July 138 August 135 September 146 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.20 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. c-1. Calculate MAD for Three-month moving average and Exponential smoothing. c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Since the beginning of the year, the purchase manager at a department store has been recording sales data to be used to compute 4-period moving averages to forecast sales for an upcoming month. Sales data for the months of January through September are reported in the table below. Month January February March April May June July August September Sales 21 20 39 22 29 14 42 28 27 Computed forecast values are not rounded. Compute the four-period moving average forecast for October. value as a whole number by rounding. Specify the Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAD as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MSE as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAPE as a whole number by rounding. CHECK ANSWER
The Fieldale Dairy produces cheese, which it sells to su-permarkets and food processing companies. Because of concerns about cholesterol and fat in cheese, the companyhas seen demand for its products decline during the pastdecade. It is now considering introducing some alternativelow-fat dairy products and wants to determine how much available plant capacity it will have next year. The com-pany has developed an exponential smoothing forecast with 0.40 to forecast cheese. The actual demand andthe forecasts from its model are shown as follows: Assess the accuracy of the forecast model using MAD and cu-mulative error, and determine if the forecast error reflects bias using a tracking signal and 3 MAD control limits. If the ex-ponential smoothing forecast model is biased, determine if a linear trend model would provide a more accurate forecast.
Weekly income for Quiet Mental Breakdown, an online psychology firm, is provided below. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three-period or four-period simple moving average gives a better forecast. Week Income 1 980 2 1040 3 1120 4 1050 5 960 6 990 7 1030 8 1260 9 1240 10 1100 Group of answer choices Both the four-period & three-period simple moving averages have the same forecast accuracy in terms of their MSE There is not enough information to determine the answer The four-period simple moving averages gives a better forecast because it has the smallest MSE The three-period simple moving average gives a better forecast because it has the smallest MSE
Income at the law firm of Smith and Jones for the period February to July was as follows: Month February March April May June July Income (in $ thousand) 90.0 91.5 96.0 85.4 92.2 96.0 Assume that the initial forecast for February is $85,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are a = 0.1 and ß = 0.2. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the forecast for the law firm's August income =O thousand dollars (round your response to two decimal places).
14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places) 16
If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the Mean Absolute Deviation based on this how many miles?
The actual number of patients at Providence Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows: Week Actual No. of Patients 1 65 68 77 59 66 75 23456 2 5 6 Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.500 on the present period, 0.250 one period ago, 0.125 two periods ago, and 0.125 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? The value of the forecast is patients (round your response to two decimal places). b) If instead the weights were 40, 20, 10, and 10, respectively, how would the forecast change? OA. The value of the forecast will decrease. B. The value of the forecast will remain the same. C. The value of the forecast will increase. c) What if the weights were 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10, respectively? Now what is the forecast for week 7?…
Harlen Industries has a simple forecasting model: Take the actual demand for the same month last year and divide that by the number of fractional weeks in that month. This gives the average weekly demand for that month. This weekly average is used as the weekly forecast for the same month this year. This technique was used to forecast eight weeks for this year, which are shown in the following tables along with the actual demand that occurred. The following eight weeks show the forecast (based on last year) and the demand that actually occurred (picture attached): Calculate the MAD and tracking signal for each week.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 10 11 9 12 12 8 13 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 66 7.337.33 8.338.33 1010 10.6610.66 1111 10.6610.66 1111 99 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).

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A company wants to produce a weighted moving average forecast for April with the weights 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25 assigned to March, February, and January respectively. If the company had demands of 5,000 in January, 4,750 in February, and 5,200 in March, then April's forecast is