A COVID-19 test, which produce result in 10 minutes, has the following test characteristics. The test has a 95% sensitivity and a 95% specificity. The State of Massachusetts is in dilemma whether to test symptomatic individuals or the entire residents to decrease the spread of infection as depicted in the following two scenarios. Scenario A. The State of Massachusetts wants to administer the test on 40,000 individuals who will develop cough, fever and shortness of breath in the next 10 days to identify COVID-19 infected individuals and institute public health
A COVID-19 test, which produce result in 10 minutes, has the following test characteristics. The test has a 95% sensitivity and a 95% specificity. The State of Massachusetts is in dilemma whether to test symptomatic individuals or the entire residents to decrease the spread of infection as depicted in the following two scenarios.
Scenario A. The State of Massachusetts wants to administer the test on 40,000 individuals who will develop cough, fever and shortness of breath in the next 10 days to identify COVID-19 infected individuals and institute public health measures. The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in this population is 750 per 1,000 population using a gold-standard test.
Scenario B. The State of Massachusetts wants to administer the test to its entire COVID-19 uninfected population (6,750,000). The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in this population is 5 per 1,000 population using a gold-standard test.
Please help the State of Massachusetts by responding to the following four questions.
- Create a 2x2 table for each of the scenario using the information provided above and calculate the positive and negative predictive values for the two scenarios.
- Compare and contrast the two positive predictive values and comment on the possible reasons for the similarities or differences.
- Compare and contrast the two negative predictive values and comment on the possible reasons for the similarities or differences.
- What is your recommendation to the State of Massachusetts? Scenario A or B? Explain your response.
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