A country is ruled by a military junta. The two key members do not really trust each other, and are considering whether to try and oust the other.  General Madine has the first opportunity to launch a coup.  Admiral Adama can respond by attempting to launch his own coup.  Admiral Adama will know whether General Madine launched a coup when he makes his own decisions.  If neither launches a coup, the junta stays intact.  This is the status quo, which each value at 0.  If only one launches a coup, that coup is guaranteed to succeed.  If both launch a coup, the outcome will be decided probabilistically (think a nature node).  General Madine will successfully oust Admiral Adama 40% of the time, and Admiral Adama will succeed 60% of the time.  General Madine values gaining sole power at 100 utility and being ousted at -100.  Admiral Adama values gaining sole power at 50 utility and being ousted at -200.  Draw the game.  Then, find the SPNE of the overall game.  What will each player do.

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
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  • A country is ruled by a military junta. The two key members do not really trust each other, and are considering whether to try and oust the other.  General Madine has the first opportunity to launch a coup.  Admiral Adama can respond by attempting to launch his own coup.  Admiral Adama will know whether General Madine launched a coup when he makes his own decisions.  If neither launches a coup, the junta stays intact.  This is the status quo, which each value at 0.  If only one launches a coup, that coup is guaranteed to succeed.  If both launch a coup, the outcome will be decided probabilistically (think a nature node).  General Madine will successfully oust Admiral Adama 40% of the time, and Admiral Adama will succeed 60% of the time.  General Madine values gaining sole power at 100 utility and being ousted at -100.  Admiral Adama values gaining sole power at 50 utility and being ousted at -200.  Draw the game.  Then, find the SPNE of the overall game.  What will each player do. 
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