A company is deciding whether to develop and launch a new product. Research and development costs are expected to be $300,000 and there is a 60% chance that the product launch will be successful, and a 40% chance that it will fail. If it is successful, the levels of expected revenue and the probability of each occurring have been estimated as follows, depending on whether the product popularity is high, medium or low: Probability Revenue High: 0.25 $500,000 per year for two years Medium: 0.45 $400,000 per year for two years Low: 0.3 $300,000 per year for two years If it is a failure, there is a 0.55 probability that the research and development work can be sold for $60,000 and a 0.45 probability that it will be worth nothing at all. Construct a decision tree for this problem and answer this question that whether this company should develop and launch this new product. Please draw your decision tree in PrecisionTree, enter all given data, and analyze the problem over there to answer this question.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
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Problem#1
A company is deciding whether to develop and launch a new product. Research and development costs
are expected to be $300,000 and there is a 60% chance that the product launch will be successful, and a
40% chance that it will fail.
If it is successful, the levels of expected revenue and the probability of each occurring have been estimated
as follows, depending on whether the product popularity is high, medium or low:
Probability
Revenue
High:
0.25
$500,000 per year for two years
Medium:
0.45
$400,000 per year for two years
Low:
0.3
$300,000 per year for two years
If it is a failure, there is a 0.55 probability that the research and development work can be sold for $60,000
and a 0.45 probability that it will be worth nothing at all.
Construct a decision tree for this problem and answer this question that whether this company should
develop and launch this new product. Please draw your decision tree in PrecisionTree, enter all given
data, and analyze the problem over there to answer this question.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem#1 A company is deciding whether to develop and launch a new product. Research and development costs are expected to be $300,000 and there is a 60% chance that the product launch will be successful, and a 40% chance that it will fail. If it is successful, the levels of expected revenue and the probability of each occurring have been estimated as follows, depending on whether the product popularity is high, medium or low: Probability Revenue High: 0.25 $500,000 per year for two years Medium: 0.45 $400,000 per year for two years Low: 0.3 $300,000 per year for two years If it is a failure, there is a 0.55 probability that the research and development work can be sold for $60,000 and a 0.45 probability that it will be worth nothing at all. Construct a decision tree for this problem and answer this question that whether this company should develop and launch this new product. Please draw your decision tree in PrecisionTree, enter all given data, and analyze the problem over there to answer this question.
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