A business is launching a new product. The launch will require a number of related activities as follows – hire a sales manager (5 weeks), require the sales manager to recruit salespeople (4 weeks), train the salespeople (7 weeks), select an advertising agency (2 weeks), plan an advertising campaign with the agency (4 weeks), conduct the advertising campaign (10 weeks), design the packaging of the product (4 weeks), set up packing operation (12 weeks), pack enough products for the launch stock (8 weeks), order the launch quantity of products from the manufacturer (13 weeks), select distributors for the product (9 weeks), take initial orders from the distributors (3 weeks), dispatch the initial orders to the distributors (2 weeks). a. What is the earliest time that the new product can be introduced to the market? b. If the company hire trained salespeople who do not need further training, could the product be introduced 7 weeks earlier? c. How long could one delay selecting the advertising agency?
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
A business is launching a new product. The launch will require a number of related activities as follows – hire a sales manager (5 weeks), require the sales manager to recruit salespeople (4 weeks), train the salespeople (7 weeks), select an advertising agency (2 weeks), plan an advertising campaign with the agency (4 weeks), conduct the advertising campaign (10 weeks), design the packaging of the product (4 weeks), set up packing operation (12 weeks), pack enough products for the launch stock (8 weeks), order the launch quantity of products from the manufacturer (13 weeks), select distributors for the product (9 weeks), take initial orders from the distributors (3 weeks), dispatch the initial orders to the distributors (2 weeks).
a. What is the earliest time that the new product can be introduced to the market?
b. If the company hire trained salespeople who do not need further training, could the product be introduced 7 weeks earlier?
c. How long could one delay selecting the advertising agency?
d. In the problem above, if the sales manager cannot be hired for 3 weeks, how will that affect the total project?
e. In the previous problem, if the whole project launch operation is to be completed as rapidly as possible, what activities must be completed by the end of week 16?
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