A bank faces a pool of borrowers with measure one in two successive periods. In each period, each borrower wishes to borrow 1 unit from the bank. In each period, a low risk borrower's project returns G = 2 with probability p = 0.9 and 0 otherwise, while a high risk borrower's project yields B = 3.5 with probability p = 0.5 and zero otherwise. The bank knows that the proportion of low risk borrowers is y = 0.4. However, the bank is unable to distinguish between low and high risk borrowers, i.e. it doesn't have an appropriate screening technology.

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
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A bank faces a pool of borrowers with measure one in two
successive periods. In each period, each borrower wishes to
borrow 1 unit from the bank. In each period, a low risk
borrower's project returns G = 2 with probability p, = 0.9 and
O otherwise, while a high risk borrower's project yields B = 3.5
with probability p, = 0.5 and zero otherwise. The bank knows
Pg
that the proportion of low risk borrowers is y = 0.4. However,
the bank is unable to distinguish between low and high risk
borrowers, i.e. it doesn't have an appropriate screening
technology.
Transcribed Image Text:A bank faces a pool of borrowers with measure one in two successive periods. In each period, each borrower wishes to borrow 1 unit from the bank. In each period, a low risk borrower's project returns G = 2 with probability p, = 0.9 and O otherwise, while a high risk borrower's project yields B = 3.5 with probability p, = 0.5 and zero otherwise. The bank knows Pg that the proportion of low risk borrowers is y = 0.4. However, the bank is unable to distinguish between low and high risk borrowers, i.e. it doesn't have an appropriate screening technology.
1. Consider a bank which operates as a monopoly and
wants to attract both types of borrowers in the first
period.
a. What is the repayment R1) that the bank will charge
in the first period? Compute the bank's first period
profit 7 (1).
b. Calculate the posterior probabilities of a borrower
being low risk given that the project was successful
and also when the project failed after the first period
(i.e. Pr(G|S) ,Pr(G|F), respectively).
c. What repayments R, R will the bank charge to
successful and failed borrowers, respectively, in the
second period? Calculate the bank's second period
profit 7 (2) . What is the total profit across the two
periods (T() + 7(2)) ?
Transcribed Image Text:1. Consider a bank which operates as a monopoly and wants to attract both types of borrowers in the first period. a. What is the repayment R1) that the bank will charge in the first period? Compute the bank's first period profit 7 (1). b. Calculate the posterior probabilities of a borrower being low risk given that the project was successful and also when the project failed after the first period (i.e. Pr(G|S) ,Pr(G|F), respectively). c. What repayments R, R will the bank charge to successful and failed borrowers, respectively, in the second period? Calculate the bank's second period profit 7 (2) . What is the total profit across the two periods (T() + 7(2)) ?
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